Wheat futures slipped to about $6.00 per bushel, retreating from a three‑week high of $6.13 reached on June 17. The pullback followed a decline in crude oil prices and the continued flow of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz amid progress in US–Iran negotiations, which has reduced war‑risk premiums. Softer oil prices also suggest lower ocean freight costs, potentially adding further downward pressure on delivered wheat values.
In the European Union, exporters face a more challenging environment. Morocco is expected to scale back wheat imports following a recovery from drought, while Black Sea suppliers remain aggressively competitive. Persistent pressure from low‑cost origins such as Russia and Ukraine continues to cap global prices, compounded by weaker demand from key buyers including Algeria and China.
On the supply side, output in Argentina and Australia is projected to decline. In contrast, strong harvests in Russia and Ukraine, along with firmer production in Turkey and Syria, are likely to intensify competition in export markets. Meanwhile, Egypt has already purchased 4.7 million tons of wheat and is on pace to meet its 5‑million‑ton procurement target in support of its subsidised bread program.
