The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow model has slightly lowered its estimate for U.S. economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2026 to 3.3%, down from a prior reading of 3.4%. The latest update, released on 1 November 2026, indicates only a marginal softening in the near-term growth outlook.
While the adjustment is minimal, the move from 3.4% to 3.3% suggests the Atlanta Fed’s real-time tracking model is detecting a modest cooling in activity as the quarter progresses. The GDPNow estimate is closely watched by markets for an early read on official GDP figures, though it is not an official forecast and can shift as new economic data are released.
