The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note was little changed around 4.64% on Tuesday as investors looked ahead to the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision, with markets assigning a bit more than a one‑in‑three chance to an interest rate increase. That represents an unusually high degree of uncertainty this close to a Fed meeting compared with recent years.
Citadel Securities said it expects the Fed to raise rates this week to bolster Chairman Kevin Warsh’s inflation‑fighting credibility after repeated pledges to restore price stability. Futures markets currently put the probability of another rate hike in September at roughly 56%.
On the geopolitical front, President Donald Trump said the US was engaged in “good talks” with Iran aimed at ending the conflict in the Middle East. The remarks pushed oil prices lower, easing some concerns about inflation and the prospect of tighter monetary policy.
