FX.co ★ US Small Business Sentiment Weaker than Expected

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index experienced a decline of 3.3 points, reaching 97.4 in March 2025. This figure represents the lowest level since October 2024, just prior to the election, and falls short of market expectations, which projected a reading of 101.3. Concurrently, the Uncertainty Index decreased to 96, dropping by eight points from February's record second-highest level. Small business owners have revised down their sales growth expectations, which decreased by 11 points to a net 3%, as they gain a clearer insight into how the new policy priorities impact their operations. Furthermore, the percentage of owners expecting better business conditions fell by 16 points to a net 21%, representing the third consecutive monthly decline and the largest drop since December 2020. Additional declines were observed in earnings trends, which fell 4 points to a net -28%; plans to increase employment, down 3 points to 12%; belief it is a good time to expand, reducing by 3 points to 9%; current inventory levels, decreasing 2 points to -7%; and expected credit conditions, dropping 1 point to -4%.