The US economy is projected to grow at an annualized rate of 3.0% in Q4 2025, down from 4.4% in the previous quarter. According to the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate, consumer spending is expected to remain resilient, supported by health care outlays and gains in asset markets, though it is likely to moderate to 2.5% from 3.5% in Q3.
Investment in non-residential structures and residential construction is forecast to remain weak, while equipment investment is expected to continue expanding, underpinned by the ongoing AI-driven investment boom. Inventories are projected to be broadly unchanged in Q4, which would make a positive contribution to GDP following steep drawdowns in both Q2 and Q3.
Government spending is anticipated to slow, with state and local expenditures posting moderate growth, while federal outlays are likely to decline in the wake of the longest government shutdown on record. Externally, both exports and imports are expected to rise modestly, providing a small net boost to overall GDP growth.
