To eliminate economic dependency on China, the United States and the European Union will need to invest a staggering $23.6 trillion over the next 25 years. According to a study by consulting firm EY-Parthenon, cited by the Financial Times, this funding is necessary to establish alternative infrastructure, localize production, and restructure global supply chains that are currently heavily reliant on Chinese resources.
In terms of regional financial burden, the investment will be distributed as follows: by 2050, the United States will need to allocate approximately $13.7 trillion for these efforts, while eurozone countries will require $9.1 trillion, and the UK will need $800 billion. Experts emphasize that it will be impossible to transition key production capacities to the West without consequences. This process of deglobalization will inevitably impose a heavy burden on taxpayers and lead to rising prices, as the cost of Chinese goods is currently 20-100% lower than their Western counterparts.
An additional obstacle to a rapid severing of ties is China’s effective monopoly on industrial raw materials. According to estimates from the International Energy Agency, by 2035, China will continue to control over 60% of global supplies of refined lithium and cobalt, as well as around 80% of graphite and rare earth metals. The situation is further complicated by regulatory pressure. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has already imposed a ban on the supply of military and dual-use products to ten major American corporations.
