In its latest outlook for the world economy, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development predicted a strong rebound from the current global recession in 2021. However, it revised its forecast and came to a rather discouraging conclusion, saying "We're not out of the woods. We're still in the midst of a pandemic crisis, which means that policy still has a lot to do".
The news about several effective vaccines against the coronavirus offered glimmers of hope, resulting in more optimistic economic-growth projections. Analysts expected the indicators to return to pre-crisis levels next year and the world economy to recover as soon as possible. However, the recent figures suggest the opposite.
Now the OECD sees no cause for such optimism as global economic growth is being weighed down by repeated COVID-19 outbreaks, new restrictions and lockdowns, as well as massive disruptions to vaccination programmes. Even in the best-case scenario, real GDP is expected to grow by 4.25% next year and by 3.75% in 2022, according to the OECD. Earlier, global growth in 2021 was projected at 5%. This year, the global economy is expected to contract by 4.2%.
Of course, after a crisis, the economy usually recovers at a faster pace, but in this case it is too early to talk about it. A lot depends on how much people trust the authorities' decisions, the World Bank notes.
