European natural gas futures fell below €51 per MWh after Iraq reached an agreement with the Kurdistan Regional Government to resume oil exports via a pipeline to Turkey’s Ceyhan port, allowing flows to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, the United States has intensified efforts to reopen this key shipping lane by targeting Iranian missile sites.
Normally, about 20% of global LNG trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz. The route has been largely closed since last month’s attacks, driving up Europe’s fuel costs. The disruption has come just ahead of the region’s gas stockpiling season, with storage levels already about 15 percentage points below the five‑year average following a colder‑than‑usual winter. As a result, Europe will need to boost LNG imports over the summer.
HSBC expects gas prices to stay elevated and forecasts a 40% increase by 2026.
