Cocoa prices have eased to about $5,630 per tonne, leaving the market roughly flat on the year as traders continue to weigh crop prospects and weather-related risks. Market focus is increasingly shifting to the 2026/27 season, where expectations of lower output may help rebalance conditions after a significant global surplus projected for 2025/26.
Production forecasts for key producers Ivory Coast and Ghana have already been revised down, and unfavorable weather is deepening concerns about the next harvest. In Ivory Coast, farmers report that below-average rainfall, persistent cloud cover, and a recent spell of cooler temperatures are threatening the development of the main crop, which runs from September to February.
Supply risks are also emerging in other growing regions. Current estimates indicate that Ecuador, Peru, and producers in Southeast Asia could together deliver around 100,000 tonnes less cocoa in the coming season.
