FX.co ★ European Gas Extends Gains

European natural gas prices extended their rally on Tuesday, briefly rising above €70/MWh — the highest level since January 2023 — as escalating US-Iran tensions raised fresh concerns about Europe’s gas supply security ahead of the heating season. The United States and Iran exchanged strikes over the weekend for the first time in a month, heightening the risk of a prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of global LNG trade typically passes. The likelihood of sustained interruptions has intensified competition with Asian buyers, tightening the supply of cargoes available to Europe during the crucial gas-storage refill period. EU gas storage sites are about 64% full, below the historical average for this time of year. These relatively low inventory levels, combined with uncertainty over LNG flows from the Persian Gulf, are driving prices higher and more than offsetting the dampening effect of milder early-September weather forecasts on near-term demand.