Canada’s CFIB Business Barometer long-term index, which tracks 12‑month business expectations, fell to 47.9 in September 2026 from 57.7 in August, marking a three‑month low. Short‑term optimism, based on the three‑month outlook, also weakened sharply, dropping to 43.3 from 53. Confidence deteriorated across all sectors, although sentiment improved somewhat in information, arts, and recreation. Long‑term expectations also declined broadly, with the exception of the insurance, real estate, and professional services sectors.
At the same time, firms’ average planned price increases rose markedly to 3.3%, while expected wage growth was largely unchanged at 2.4%. Hiring intentions remained subdued, with more firms planning to reduce staff (16%) than add workers (13%). Weak demand was the most commonly cited constraint, affecting nearly half of all businesses, while higher fuel, tax, insurance, and wage costs continued to weigh on operating expenses.
