EUR / USD
The growth of the euro was moderate on Monday. The quotations pushed up the growth of oil, which added 2.5% on the effect of backwardation, in which the value of the current futures contract exceeds the value of the distant contract. Also, investors tried to get out of the "hot" dollar until the situation of the trade conflict with China was clarified. But the economic indicators of the euro area were not in favor of the euro. Germany's trade balance in February fell from 21.5 billion euros to 19.2 billion, with expectations for growth to 23.1 billion. The index of investor confidence in the eurozone Sentix this month fell from 24.0 to 19.6 while waiting for 21.2. Apparently, the head of the ECB Mario Draghi expressed the need for a patient and prudent policy of the Central Bank.
Today, I will go to the indices of industrial production in France and Italy. According to France, the March forecast is 1.5% growth. In Italy, the February estimate expects 1.0%. In the US, the producer price index for March is expected to grow by 0.1%, the base or root index (Core PPI) is expected to grow by 0.2%. The wholesale inventories for February in the final estimate may be lowered from 1.1% to 0.8% and the optimism index of small business is forecasted to decrease to 107.0 from 107.6.
In general, the situation for the dollar remains uncomfortable. In the absence of strong external factors, as the forthcoming military strike against Syria, it is possible that the euro will continue to rise to the upper limit of the previously designated range of 1.2210-1.2410.
