EUR/USD – 4H.
As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair fell to the correction level of 161.8% (1.0918) and rebounded from it. In the last article on the EUR/USD pair, I said that the closure under the Fibo level of 161.8% is not certain, so a rebound is possible. More confident consolidation did not happen, so now I interpret the behavior of the pair around the level of 161.8% as a retreat. Thus, the euro has a small chance of growth in the direction of the correctional level of 127.2% (1.1024). At the same time, the consolidation of the rate under the Fibonacci level of 161.8% increases the probability of further drop towards the next correction level of 200.0% (1.0802). Today, the divergence is not observed in any indicator.
In a previous article, I also examined the situation with the possible impeachment of Donald Trump and said that in any case, the Democrats have the advantage of everything that is happening around the US president. Even if Trump will not be put forward on any impeachment or there is not enough reason to impose it (after all, 2/3 of the Congress should support impeachment), the next shadow will be cast on the US President. "Another," because during the entire presidency, Trump repeatedly cast a shadow over himself. Many still do not understand why it was necessary to foment a trade war with China, if there are no winners in it and there will not be, as in any war. Trump has a chance to conclude a more favorable trade agreement for the United States, but so far this has not happened, the negotiations are frozen and resemble negotiations between the EU and Britain on Brexit. That is, they seem to be continuing, but there is no progress in them. But the impact of the trade war and mutual duties on the US economy is visible. Accordingly, many Americans do not approve of Trump's actions.
The situation with the president of Ukraine is also clear. Even if Trump cannot be legally made a claim, it is clear to everyone that the US president wants to eliminate his main rival in the race for the presidency in 2020, which means that there is no question of any "fair play". Also, Congress has now requested a transcript of conversations between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin and may request transcripts and conversations with leaders of other countries in the future. In general, Donald Trump will be under the scrutiny of the security services and Congress, especially for those actions that he has already committed and which cannot be undone or forgotten.
To the great joy of the American currency, traders have not yet interpreted the situation with the impeachment of Trump as something negative for the American economy. Although they also do not interpret all the activities of Trump as president of America, as something negative. Despite the negative impact of trade wars on the economy, it remains strong enough, and demand for the US currency is not weakening.
What to expect today from the euro/dollar currency pair?
On September 30, I expect the euro/dollar pair to consolidate below the level of 161.8% and continue falling in the direction of the Fibo level of 200.0% (1.0802). The information background will be weak today, there are no reports that deserve the attention of traders today. Thus, the information pause can be used by bull traders to slightly raise the currency pair.
The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of May 23, 2019, and June 25, 2019.
Forecast for EUR/USD and trading recommendations:
I recommend selling the pair today with the target of 1.0802 if it closes at 1.0918. A stop-loss order above the level of 1.0927.
It will be possible to buy the pair after the close above the downward trend channel, I do not recommend it earlier.
