EUR/USD - 4H.
On December 16, the EUR/USD pair performed a new reversal in favor of the US currency and began a new fall in the direction of the bottom line of the upward trend area. Thus, the upward mood of traders remains on December 17, but soon may be followed by closure under the trend area, which will change the mood to "bearish". Thus, bear traders should wait for consolidation under the corridor, bull traders - rebound from the lower line of the corridor. There are no new emerging divergences in any indicator today. The information background has a restrained impact on the euro-dollar pair, however, yesterday's economic reports could cause a higher demand for the US dollar. Today, no important economic reports, except for industrial production in the United States, does not appear in the calendar.
In short, yesterday's indicators of business activity in Europe again left much to be desired. All the concerns of traders are reduced to the production sector - both the pan-European and each EU member state. As yesterday's data showed, business activity continues to decline in the manufacturing sectors of Germany, France, and the entire European Union. However, the data for December is not final, as the month is not yet complete. By the end of the month, we can expect changes, but it is unlikely to increase.
At the same time, the Lower House of the US Congress is preparing to vote for the impeachment of Donald Trump. Most likely, this will happen on Wednesday, December 18, and with a probability approximately equal to the completion of Brexit by the conservatives before the end of January, the Lower House will approve the Democrats bill. The Democrats submitted a 658-page report detailing all the claims against the American President and the rationale for impeaching him. Specifically, the document says, "President Trump embodied the founding fathers' worst nightmare. He abused his right to put pressure on a vulnerable foreign state (Ukraine) and force it to corrupt the next presidential election by subverting a political opponent." Also, an entire part of the document is devoted to the President's attempts to obstruct justice. "Other presidents were aware of their duty to provide any necessary information to Congress. President Trump, on the contrary, ignored any requests," the document says. "It follows from the above information that President Trump will continue to jeopardize the security, democracy and constitutional order of our country if he is allowed to remain in office," the document concluded.
Since most of the House of Representatives are Democrats, the impeachment of Trump can be considered a settled matter. However, after that, the final decision will depend on the Senate, in which the majority of seats are held by Republicans. Thus, it can also be guaranteed that Trump will not be impeached in the end. Based on all this, we can only say that this whole story has already negatively affected the political ratings of Donald Trump, and can put even more pressure on them.
Forecast for EUR/USD and trading recommendations:
On December 17, traders will try to resume the fall of the euro-dollar pair. Yesterday's reports from the eurozone again showed weakness, so soon, we should expect a close under the trend range, which will allow bear traders to sell the pair again with targets of 1.1080 and 1.1057.
The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of October 21, 2019, and November 29, 2019.
