GBP/USD – 1H.
Hello, traders! It is very difficult to describe what is happening in the world, the currency market, and the stock markets. Oil has fallen to $27 per barrel and "coronavirus" is raging panic. After making the illustrations for this article, I found that the price "flew" from the values for which I was going to do a review. What can I say? The pair's quotes continue the growth process and now no Fibonacci levels, trend lines, or other graphics are important. You just need to wait until the situation calms down a bit and traders return to their usual way of trading. But no one knows when will it be.
GBP/USD – 4H.
According to the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair closed over the downward trend corridor and continues its "crazy" growth. At the moment, the pair has completed an increase to the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3207) and is unlikely to stop there. I would not even count on rebounding from the Fibo level of 100.0% right now, and I certainly would not open short positions on such a trend. I believe that the best thing any trader can do now is not to trade and wait for this collapse to end.
GBP/USD – Daily.
As seen on the daily chart, the graphic picture remains the most interesting. The pair has completed a consolidation over a small trend corridor, completed closure over a second descending corridor and completely breaks the graphical picture that was formed during the months. So I wouldn't count on any graphical signals right now. We need to wait for traders, major players, and markets to calm down.
Overview of fundamentals:
On Friday, March 6, all the super important news and reports were not taken into account by traders because they did not matter. What is happening in the world today is not predictable, and even more, it is not affected by conventional economic reports.
The economic calendar for the US and the UK:
On March 9, traders will not have to pay attention to the economic reports, as there are no plans for any in the UK and the US.
COT survey (Commitments of traders):
The new COT report for the week of March 3 showed the same lack of changes between the volumes of short positions and long positions. Thus, nothing much changed in the week before March 3. But events that started happening after March 3 are not displayed in the report. The markets are now in a state of panic, so the total numbers of all contracts for all groups of major players may already differ from the reported ones by very impressive values. Thus, the COT report in these conditions also does not help to determine the further movement of the pound/dollar pair quotes.
Forecast for GBP/USD and recommendations for traders:
I believe that in the current conditions, traders should not open any positions. Opening short position on such a trend is suicide. Buying is also dangerous. It is not known when this "storm" will end.
TERMS:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, and companies that buy currency not for speculative profit, but for current operations or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
