"We think that stimulus-fuelled inflation is unlikely in the short or medium term. With interest rates set to remain historically low, we expect the gold price will come under pressure from fading safe-haven demand, falling to $1,600 per ounce by year-end," says economist James O'Rourke.
"This year's rally in the gold price has come on the back of a coronavirus-led surge in safe-haven buying and a plunge in interest-rate expectations."
"We expect a period of disinflation in the short term. What's more, we don't think that expansionary fiscal and monetary policy will lead to runaway inflation in the medium term," O'Rourke described. "After all, cutting interest rates to zero and launching quantitative easing after the Global Financial Crisis failed to deliver significant inflation. Japan's experience suggests that inflation is hard to generate."
"We expect U.S. interest rates to remain at their lower bound going forward, so the gold price is unlikely to benefit from a further fall in rate expectations anytime soon. And unless the virus takes a turn for the worse, we think safe-haven demand will wane too as the global economy recovers, ultimately weighing on the gold price," he noted.
Meanwhile, CNBC asked well-known market observer Jim Grant about which markets to invest in. Jim Grant's reply was in gold and silver.
According to Grant, the Fed is committed to maintaining almost zero interest rates up to the end of 2022 and using all its instruments to support the economy. This may lead to further speculative rates and trigger growth in stocks and corporate debt. However, without a real economic recovery, the market is likely to face a more serious problem - insolvency. That is why the gap between asset efficiency and the economic fundamentals cannot last forever, and investors need to become more rational with their investment approach.
He also pointed out that there was a growing concern in the global market over the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic which covered many countries. There was some evidence that the second outbreak may occur in several regions of some countries, including the United States. At the moment, the US dollar is in a serious decline therefore gold and silver are reliable assets for now.
