The World Bank has updated its forecast for an increase in oil prices to $ 44 per barrel in 2021 from $ 41 this year. And in 2022, according to the calculations of analysts of the financial organization, the cost of black gold will increase to $ 50 per barrel. This is stated in the World Bank review.
Recall that in its June report, the bank's specialists expected an increase in the oil price in 2021 to $ 38 per barrel, and this year – to $ 41 per barrel. The average price in 2020 was expected to be around $ 32 per barrel.
According to the report of the financial institution, the main risk for drawing up an accurate price scenario is the duration and severity of the COVID-19 pandemic. Equally important is the pace of development and implementation of an effective antiviral vaccine. An uncontrolled increase in the incidence of diseases, which at any time can lead to the introduction of strict quarantine and restrictions on movement, will affect the oil demand more than for other types of raw materials.
In its forecasts, the World Bank says that the coronavirus pandemic will harm oil consumption for a long time, which by the end of 2021 will remain 5% below the trend recorded before it began. However, if the spread of the vaccine is faster than predicted, the increase in oil consumption in the coming year may be more significant.
Also, representatives of the financial organization believe that the presence of a large amount of spare capacity in OPEC countries and the preservation of significant reserves of black gold reduce the likelihood of a sharp rise in prices. Any additional factors that reduce oil demand may further complicate the situation of commodity-exporting countries, which have experienced a double blow - from the coronavirus and falling oil revenues.
