As it was mentioned, inflation and recession are the two key topics of discussion in the US at the moment. More and more economists see a rising probability of recession in the next year or two. Currently, there is slightly more than a 50% chance of it. However, most experts also doubt that a tightening of monetary policy will bring inflation back to the target level. Robert Kiyosaki believes high inflation will affect 50% of the US population. He points out that despite the popular perception of the wealth of the American economy and population, many people do not have an extra $1,000 to cover unexpected expenses due to rising prices. "America has stopped producing products, we produce bubbles," the author of the best-selling book Rich Dad Poor Dad said. According to him, there are already bubbles in the real estate market, the stock market, and the bond market. Bubbles have a tendency to burst sooner or later. Kiyosaki says none of the above bubbles have burst yet, and the worst is yet to come. He also expressed concern for the retirement savings of older Americans, which could depreciate. The author also criticizes President Joe Biden's decision to halt the Keystone oil pipeline, which he believes is a major reason energy prices are so high. He advises everyone to buy silver and gold to protect their capital from collapse.
The situation in the world, though, can hardly be called quiescent. Over the past few years, it has become clear that humanity still cannot control various cataclysms and predict unforeseeable situations. Diplomats are still unable to negotiate at the international level. Thus, from time to time there is a "storm". In a storm, everyone suffers loss and damage. The current storm seems to be in one of its first stages. As for the US stock market, it will continue to fall if the geopolitical or fundamental background does not change drastically in the near future.
Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, is more optimistic on this point. He believes that there will not be a prolonged and deep recession, and that economic growth will simply be below forecasts for the next year or two. He sees the odds of a recession as roughly 33% in the next 12 months and 50% within the next 24 months. The Fed rate, according to Hatzius, will rise to 3.5% and then halt.
