The wave marking of the 4-hour chart for the euro/dollar instrument does not require new adjustments. I recently built a new wave markup that does not yet consider the rising wave marked with a bold red line. The whole wave structure can be complicated an unlimited number of times. It is the disadvantage of wave analysis, since any structure can always take a more complex and extended form. Therefore, now I propose to work on simpler wave structures that contain waves of a lower scale.
As you can see, the construction of a descending wave has presumably begun, which may be wave 5 of a new downward trend section. If this assumption is correct, the instrument will resume its decline with targets below 1.0000. The supposed wave 4 took a three-wave form and, surprisingly, coincided with the peak of the supposed wave 4. Thus, perhaps this is the moment the market has been waiting for. The euro and the pound are now coinciding in their wave markings, suggesting a new decline. The wave pattern may still take a more complex form, which we would like to avoid, but the wave pattern looks very convincing at the moment.
The deterioration of geopolitics around the island of Taiwan increases the demand for the dollar.
The euro/dollar instrument began to decline on Tuesday and has already lost 60 basis points. It is not yet such a strong decline to speak with confidence about the completion of the construction of wave 4, but any wave starts small. Therefore, I believe that now the instrument can start a long decline again, which I have been expecting for two weeks. It is very important that the demand for the dollar began to grow at a time when the whole world was on the verge of another geopolitical conflict. For me, the visit of the Speaker of the US Congress, Nancy Pelosi, to Taiwan is not something out of the ordinary. But if such a fuss has been raised around this event, there are reasons for that. I want to note that China has long "had designs" on Taiwan, whose security is guaranteed by Washington. Guarantees and supplies various weapons, as well as air defense. Thus, Beijing has its interests, and Washington has its own. So many people have been watching Nancy Pelosi overboard in the last 24 hours, as if the future, if not the whole world, then China and the United States, depends on whether she sits in Taipei. And I think that ordinary people do not realize the depth of the conflict. They don't realize it because they don't have all the necessary information. In the last half hour, it became known that China is blocking the sky for civil aviation in the Taiwanese direction. Air defense guns are uncovered at Taipei Airport. Beijing has stated that it will not allow Pelosi's visit and considers it a gross interference in China's internal affairs. The United States sent more than ten fighter jets to escort Pelosi to protect. And the plane itself should land in Taipei within the next hour. Thus, tonight we will be able to get a lot of new information, and let's hope that a new military conflict will not begin.
General conclusions.
Based on the analysis, I conclude that the construction of the downward trend section continues. If so, it is now possible to sell the instrument with targets located near the estimated 0.9397 mark, which is equivalent to 423.6% Fibonacci, for each MACD signal "down" in the calculation of the construction of wave 5. Wave 4 can already be completed.
At the higher wave scale, the wave marking of the descending trend segment becomes noticeably more complicated and lengthens. It can take on almost any length, so I think it's best to isolate three and five-wave standard wave structures and work on them.
