Although the wave marking for the pound/dollar instrument currently appears quite confusing, no clarifications are necessary. The five waves a–b–c–d–e that make up the completed downward trend section are complete. Additionally, we have a five-wave (a-b-c-d-e) upward trend section that can already be finished. As a result, I believe that the instrument's quotes may continue to rise for a while, but that the European currency has already begun to form a new downward wave and that the British should follow it. As both central banks recently increased interest rates, the news background could be interpreted in any way. On the Friday before last, we witnessed the dollar decline against the news backdrop, which may have contributed to its potential new growth. Then there was the inflation report, which decreased demand for the dollar despite the possibility of the opposite event. Now, the decline in prices from the peaks reached suggests that the market is ready to sell, but these sales won't generate enough volume to create a new downward wave that is actual and not phantom-like.
The British pound is no longer able to increase.
On November 22, the pound/dollar exchange rate increased by 70 basis points, and today's movements continue to have a small amplitude. As I've already mentioned, there is essentially no news background this week, and the British trader is doing the best job given the absence of news. There is almost no movement at all. While the British remain largely unchanged, Europe continues to decline. Such a difference might be present if significant reports were made in the UK but not in the EU. Or vice versa. However, the background news is now equally absent for Europeans, Britons, and Americans. So why is the euro declining but not the pound?
I also begin primarily with wave analysis because there are no news updates. I'm anticipating a decline because the five-wave structure appears to be fully equipped. If this week's news had been the background, one might have imagined a different scenario in which one or more specific stories would have led to a decline in the demand for US currency. However, there is no news, and there won't be any. I've already said that it's unlikely that the reports and events on the calendar will have an impact on the market's mood. This implies that wave marking is the only place to start right now. Therefore, I can only wait for a decrease in British quotes.
This week, business activity indices for the manufacturing and service sectors will be released in the UK; however, the US and the EU will also release the same indices. There won't be any significant changes in the values of the nine indices because they are all likely to stay below the critical level of 50.0. There is no justification for increasing business activity, given that all three economies are on the verge of recession.
Conclusions in general
The construction of a new downward trend segment is predicated on the wave pattern of the pound/dollar instrument. Since the wave marking now makes it possible to start building a downward trend section immediately, I can no longer recommend purchasing the instrument. Sales are more accurate now that the targets are close to the 200.0% Fibonacci level.
The euro/dollar instrument and the picture look very similar at the larger wave scale, which is good because both instruments should move similarly. The upward correction portion of the trend is currently almost finished. If this is the case, a new downward trend will soon develop.
