FX.co ★ GBP/USD: trading plan for the US session on June 13th (analysis of morning deals)

In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the 1.2788 level and planned to make decisions on entering the market from it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and figure out what happened there. The growth and formation of a false breakout there led to an excellent entry point for the sale of the pound, which has so far resulted in a drop of only 15 points. In the afternoon, the technical picture was slightly revised.

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

It is very important how the pound will react to the next batch of US data now. It all starts with the producer price index, excluding food and energy prices. It ends with a report on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the United States. Weak data will return the bull market, allowing the morning growth attempts to continue. Strong statistics will dump GBP/USD to the support area of 1.2762, where I'm going to act. The formation of a false breakout will give an entry point into long positions in order to return to the level of 1.2797. A breakout and a reverse test from top to bottom of this range will allow you to get another entry point to buy, which will open the way to the level of 1.2828. The farthest target will be the 1.2858 area, where I'm going to take profits. In the scenario of a decline in GBP/USD and a lack of activity on the part of the bulls at 1.2762 in the afternoon, the pound risks entering the bear market stage, which will only increase pressure on the pair. This will also lead to a decrease and update of the next 1.2736 support. Only the formation of a false breakout will be a suitable condition for opening long positions. I'm going to buy GBP/USD immediately on a rebound from the minimum of 1.2707 in order to correct by 30-35 points within the day.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Sellers are trying in every possible way to bring the market back under their control. An important task for the second half of the day will be to protect the nearest resistance of 1.2797, formed during European trading. The formation of a false breakout after weak statistics on the United States will be a suitable option for opening short positions in order to reduce to the area of 1.2762, which we have not yet reached, and where the moving averages playing on the side of the bulls are located. I expect active actions from large buyers there, so a breakout and a reverse test from the bottom up of this range will hit their positions, leading to the demolition of stop orders and opening the way to 1.2736. The farthest target will be the 1.2707 area, where I will record profits. A test of this level will also indicate the formation of a new bear market. With the option of GBP/USD growth and lack of activity at 1.2797 in the afternoon, buyers will try to bring the market back under their control. In this case, I will postpone sales until a false breakdown at 1.2828. In the absence of a downward movement there, I will sell GBP/USD immediately for a rebound from 1.2858, but only counting on a correction of the pair down by 30-35 points within the day.

In the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for June 4, there was an increase in long positions and a reduction in short ones. Many economists continue to bet that the Bank of England will cut interest rates in late summer and early autumn of this year. However, the key moment for determining the direction of the pound is likely to be the results of the next meeting of the Federal Reserve System, which will give the pair momentum for the next month. The fact that the buyers of the pound quite steadfastly endured the sell-off observed after recent data on the US labor market indicates the presence of major players betting on further growth of GBP/USD. Therefore, the hope for a bull market for the pound remains. The latest COT report says that long non-profit positions increased by 9,077 to 102,118, while short non-profit positions decreased by 8,731 to 58,731. As a result, the spread between long and short positions fell by 5,086.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trading is conducted above the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating further pair growth.

Note: The period and prices of the moving averages considered by the author are on the H1 hourly chart and differ from the classic daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart.

Bollinger Bands

In case of a decline, the lower boundary of the indicator, around 1.2762, will act as support.

Indicator Descriptions:

• Moving Average: Determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise. Period 50, marked in yellow on the chart.
• Moving Average: Determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise. Period 30, marked in green on the chart.
• MACD Indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Fast EMA period 12, Slow EMA period 26, SMA period 9.
• Bollinger Bands: Period 20.
• Non-commercial traders: Speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions, use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
• Long non-commercial positions: Represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions: Represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
• Total non-commercial net position: The difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.