Things are getting interesting in China! According to Bloomberg, the country's trade surplus is set to hit a record high in 2024.
If this happens, Beijing may find itself clashing with the world's largest economies. This will deepen global trade imbalances and could spark tensions with none other than US President-elect Donald Trump.
Bloomberg estimates that at the current pace of growth, the gap between China's exports and imports will reach $1 trillion. Experts are already sounding the alarm.
For the first ten months of this year, China’s trade surplus grew to $785 billion, a record-breaking figure, specialists note.
“But with Chinese export prices still falling, export volume growth was enormous,” Brad Setser, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, said. “The overall story is of an economy that is again growing off exports,” he added.
China’s authorities are leaning harder on exports to make up for weak domestic demand. However, stimulus measures are doing little to stabilize the situation.
This lopsided trend is frustrating leaders in many countries. Some fear the new US administration will impose tariffs to curb Chinese exports. Meanwhile, nations from South America to Europe have already raised barriers against Chinese goods like steel and electric cars.
Foreign companies are also pulling money out of China. Data shows that in the first nine months of 2024, foreign direct investment in the country dropped significantly. If the trend continues, it could lead to the first large-scale capital outflow since records began in 1990.
