The global oil market is at a crossroads. Major oil producers are facing a dilemma: should production be increased or held steady? According to Reuters, citing informed sources, OPEC and its allies are currently discussing the scenario of pumping up oil production in April. However, these plans could remain on paper. Some cartel members may freeze production, as they are struggling to accurately assess the global oil supply due to the new US sanctions imposed on Venezuela, Iran, and Russia.
There is no consensus among the alliance. The United Arab Emirates (UAE), eager to capitalize on its growing production capacity, supports further output increases, as does Russia. However, other key players, including Saudi Arabia, advocate for a delay in production hikes.
OPEC+ usually confirms its supply decisions a month in advance to ensure smooth distribution to buyers. The final decision on April production will likely be unveiled by March 6–7, but sources indicate that a consensus has yet to be reached.
Currently, May futures for Brent crude are down 0.83%, trading at $73 per barrel, while April contracts for WTI crude have dropped nearly 1% to $69.70 per barrel.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has resumed pressure on OPEC+ to bring down oil prices. Back in January, crude prices surged to multi-month highs, surpassing $82 per barrel, following new sanctions on Russia imposed by former US President Joe Biden.
Since then, oil prices have declined to $73 per barrel, fueled by hopes that Trump will broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine—a scenario that could boost Russian oil exports. However, Trump’s plans to cut Iranian oil exports to zero and revoke Chevron’s license to operate in Venezuela have limited the downward pressure on oil prices.
This mix of bullish and bearish factors is complicating decision-making within OPEC+. Additionally, Trump’s broader tariff policies could restrain global oil demand, making future price forecasts even more obscure.
