China’s economy has risen like a Phoenix from the ashes. According to Bloomberg’s estimates, China’s GDP grew by 5.2% in the April-June quarter. As a result, China’s economic growth in Q2 exceeded analysts’ expectations.
According to data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics, the country’s gross domestic product rose by 5.2% year-over-year in the second quarter of 2025, from the same period in 2024. GDP already expanded by 5.4% in the first quarter of 2025.
Under these conditions, the national currency remained stable, and the yield on 10-year Chinese government bonds changed very little.
Industrial production in China increased by 6.8%, greatly outpacing economists’ forecasts of just 5.6%.
The overall situation turned out to be better than expected: retail sales jumped by 4.8% in June, and fixed asset investments rose by nearly 3%. However, it wasn't all smooth sailing: real estate investment plunged by 11.2% over the reporting period. Commenting on these figures, Michelle Lam, an economist at Societe Generale SA, noted that a combination of strong supply and weak domestic demand is creating an imbalance. “China’s current export resilience is unlikely to last,” she added.
Analysts detected one warning sign - the slowing growth rate in retail sales, which is dragging down overall consumption, even though purchases of household appliances, communication devices, and furniture continue to grow thanks to government subsidies.
Interestingly, consumption accounted for just over 52% of economic growth in Q2 2025. This is higher than at the start of the year, but still lower than in 2024.
Bloomberg-surveyed analysts now forecast that China’s GDP growth will slide to 4.6% for the full year. That is well below the official target of 5%.
According to experts, China’s economy continues to face significant challenges, including the risk of declining exports amid uncertainty over US tariffs, weak domestic demand, deflationary pressure, and excess industrial capacity.
