Artificial intelligence and energy are swiftly becoming the two leading fronts in a new geopolitical race, where technological power is defined not by the number of missiles but by access to chips and operational power plants. A report from Wells Fargo Securities describes AI as “the center of a geopolitical power struggle between the US and China,” warning that its influence could radically alter the global balance of power.
Currently, the competition increasingly resembles a new type of arms race. Instead of satellites, we have GPUs. Launch pads have been replaced by data centers. Instead of uranium reactors, there is an impending electricity shortage in the United States and a growing deficit of advanced chips in China. The US response has involved a broad industrial policy, including the CHIPS Act, which provides $8.9 billion for Intel and $400 million for MP Materials, aimed at bolstering domestic production and reducing dependence on foreign suppliers. According to Wells Fargo, Washington may introduce additional measures akin to the CHIPS Act to safeguard critical AI infrastructure from potential shocks, particularly those related to China and Taiwan.
Meanwhile, energy is emerging as a strategically vital factor, nearly on par with semiconductors. The International Energy Agency projects that global demand for electricity from data centers will double by 2030, potentially tripling in an optimistic scenario. In the US, the growth of AI infrastructure increasingly relies on natural gas and nuclear power, resources expected to fulfill the lion’s share of industry demands by the middle of the next decade.
These constraints are already creating urgency in the market. Companies are actively securing future capacities, signing long-term agreements, and even negotiating with Bitcoin miners to purchase access to their electricity supply.
In this context, diplomacy is also shifting its tone. A recent agreement between the US and Japan is primarily focused on energy and grid modernization, with a significant portion of Japanese investments directed toward the US energy infrastructure needed to support AI industry growth. Collaborative documents reference firms like GE Vernova, Kinder Morgan, Carrier Global, and Cameco.
Wells Fargo draws historical parallels, comparing the current situation to the Cold War space race when US spending on science and technology reached 0.8% of GDP, almost six times the current level. During periods of major conflicts, defense spending surged even more, highlighting the scale of resources typically required for long-term geopolitical rivalry.
While US vulnerabilities include rare earth elements, pharmaceuticals, and shipbuilding, it is AI and energy that are currently defining who can maintain technological influence. China seeks access to advanced chips, while the US aims to secure its own strategic resource—sufficient electricity to develop and train next-generation models. The new superpower race increasingly boils down to two questions: who has chips, and who has the outlets?
