The average annual price of benchmark Brent crude for 2026 is projected at $94 per barrel. This baseline scenario is set out in the latest Global Economic Prospects report prepared by World Bank analysts. The bank’s experts note that the anticipated price will be about 36% higher than the 2025 level due to large disruptions in the commodity market. At the same time, World Bank economists predict that the most acute supply disruptions will begin easing by the end of July, with global inflation settling around 4% as a result.
The main catalyst for the oil rally and the revision of global macroeconomic models was the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key transport artery for Middle Eastern oil. This suspension caused a sharp supply shortfall, forcing the world’s largest economies to draw down strategic reserves at an accelerated pace. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), OECD total oil inventories risk falling to their lowest level since 2003 in the foreseeable future. That is prompting financial analysts and international institutions to price in a higher risk premium into their current forecasts.
Russian experts assess the market situation more pessimistically. Leading economist Igor Yushkov warns that the stabilization detected by the World Bank depends heavily on geopolitical factors. He cautions that if the emerging peace process collapses and a new round of direct armed confrontation between the US and Iran flares up, global oil prices would almost certainly exceed the baseline scenario and top $110 per barrel, triggering a new wave of global energy crisis.
