The troubled Chinese economy will be replaced by the Indian economy, according to forecasts by the Australian bank ANZ. Experts believe that India's growing economy will compensate for China's declining raw materials demand. Analysts note that China's crippling economic growth harms the global commodities market. ANZ reports that India will be able to partially compensate for the shortage of hydrocarbons, including crude oil, natural gas, and coal. This will help the global economy recover. Preliminary forecasts show that India's economy is expected to grow faster than that of the People's Republic of China. By the end of the decade, India's demand for raw materials may rise sharply. The country is set to become the third-largest economy in the world. India's demand for hydrocarbons will cover more than 50% of China's demand gap. "India’s demand for commodities is slated to grow rapidly, supported by favorable demographics, urbanization, the expansion of manufacturing and exports, and the build-up of infrastructure," ANZ analysts wrote. India has now overtaken China on many indicators. ANZ estimates that the country's urbanization rate may rise to 40% from 35% by 2030. Against this backdrop, demand for the metals and energy needed to fuel infrastructure and manufacturing is expected to increase. India's total annual demand for commodities such as oil, coal, gas, copper, aluminum, and steel will exceed 5% by 2030. In China, demand is forecasted to slump to 1-3% over the same period, while China's GDP may drop to 3.5% by 2030. Currently, the Indian government has scaled up its efforts to decarbonize by 2030. However, these efforts may prove futile against the country's rapidly growing demand for electricity and commodities. According to analysts at the Indian Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell, India's petroleum products consumption will grow by nearly 5% in 2024 from current levels. As a result, India is estimated to make up for 60% of China’s slack in coal demand in 2030, and 66% for oil.
