Asia, which has recently boasted flourishing economic development, can now surprise with record failures. Assessing the immediate prospects, experts have concluded that the Asia-Pacific region, including its dominant power China, could face serious headwinds and a slowdown in economic activity. Robust growth may be replaced by deep stagnation.
Putting aside the negative consequences of the coronavirus outbreak and evaluating the present situation, World Bank analysts have cut their 2024 GDP growth forecast for the Asia-Pacific region to 4.5% from 4.8%. The new estimate suggests that the region is set for its slowest pace of economic growth since the late 1960s, excluding the coronavirus pandemic, the Asian financial crisis, and the global oil shock in the 1970s. Among potential downside risks for the region’s economy, the bank noted US protectionist trade measures and rising debt levels in Asia.
China, the biggest economy in the region, has not gone unnoticed. According to the April forecast, China's GDP was projected to rise to 4.8% in 2024. Now analysts expect the country’s economy to expand only by 4.4%. The forecast was revised down due to subdued global demand for Asian goods imports amid a slowdown in global economic growth.
In late September, the World Bank lowered its 2023 growth forecast for China to 5% from an earlier estimate of 5.1%, citing "persistent difficulties in the real estate sector" and elevated debts in the corporate sector despite a slew of support measures from the local authorities.
