The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its forecast for global economic growth upward for this year due to increased resilience in both the United States and a number of large emerging and developing economies, aided by fiscal support from China.
The global economy is now predicted to grow by 3.1 percent this year, matching the rate in 2023, reflecting an increase from the 2.9 percent that was originally forecasted in October. These revisions are according to the IMF's World Economic Outlook report updated in January.
The IMF has kept the growth prediction for 2025 at 3.2%. The Washington-based financial institution stated that the growth forecast for 2024-25 is below the historical average of 3.8 percent seen from 2000-19.
The report also relayed a subsiding fear of a "hard-landing" for the global economy, with the prospect of a "soft-landing" becoming more plausible, albeit not without risks. The IMF projects global headline inflation to be 5.8 percent this year, the same as in 2023, while the prediction for the following year has been reduced by 0.2 percentage points to 4.4 percent.
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF Economic Counsellor and Director of Research, posted in a blog that while the global economy has begun its slow descent toward a soft-landing, inflation has been declining at a steady pace and growth has remained stable. However, he cautioned that the rate of expansion remains slow and there may be potential instability ahead.
The IMF classified risks to global growth as broadly-balanced.
