UK natural gas futures fell below 125 pence per therm, retreating from a three-year high of 146.3 reached on March 9, after President Donald Trump signalled that the conflict with Iran could soon come to an end. Sentiment was further supported by a statement from G7 finance ministers, who said they stand ready to release strategic oil reserves if necessary to stabilise supply.
Nevertheless, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and operations in Qatar are still suspended. Analysts caution that a prolonged shutdown of Qatari production could erase most of the global LNG supply surplus that had been anticipated for 2026.
Europe’s gas market is particularly exposed: storage sites were heavily depleted over the winter, leaving countries needing to procure substantial LNG volumes to replenish stocks before next winter. This is likely to fuel intense competition with Asian buyers for limited cargoes. The UK is especially vulnerable, given its relatively small storage capacity and heavy dependence on imports.
