FX.co ★ Treasury Yields Rise as Oil Spikes

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note edged up to 4.36% on Thursday, as renewed concerns about an inflation flare-up resurfaced. Oil prices climbed sharply after US President Trump vowed to take tougher action against Iran, while offering no concrete plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Crude prices remain near their 2022 highs, intensifying worries about their inflationary impact and raising the risk that the Fed may adopt a more hawkish stance and postpone any rate cuts this year. Earlier in the week, Fed Chair Powell noted that officials may eventually need to respond to the economic fallout from the conflict, though not at this stage, and emphasized that current policy is well positioned for a wait-and-see approach. Markets now broadly expect the Fed to leave the federal funds rate unchanged throughout the year. Meanwhile, the US bond market will be closed on Friday for the Easter holiday.