South Africa’s 10-year bond yield climbed back to around 9%, after touching a more than one-week low of 8.88% on April 1st. The move followed a sharp rise in global oil prices triggered by former US President Trump’s tough rhetoric on Iran, which has reinforced inflation concerns.
On the domestic front, investors worry that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East and persistently higher oil prices could fuel inflation, given that South Africa is a net importer of oil. Annual inflation eased to 3% in February, in line with the central bank’s target, but the recent spike in fuel costs is expected to push price pressures higher in March and the months that follow.
Against this backdrop, the South African Reserve Bank left interest rates unchanged in March, as escalating tensions in the Middle East added a new layer of uncertainty to both the inflation and growth outlook. Policymakers also indicated that further rate increases remain on the table should conditions justify additional tightening.
