The National Bank of Ukraine raised its benchmark policy rate by 50 basis points to 15.5% at its July 2026 meeting, marking its first rate hike in 16 months. The central bank’s Board explained that underlying inflationary pressures have intensified in recent months and are expected to push headline inflation higher through the end of the year, justifying tighter monetary policy.
The Board also emphasized that higher interest rates should bolster the appeal of hryvnia‑denominated assets and help curb capital outflows by households and businesses. The NBU projects that inflation could reach around 10% by year-end, up from 7.2% in June, before easing in 2027.
At the same time, expanded fiscal stimulus is expected to underpin economic growth. However, the central bank noted that the inflationary impact of this stimulus is likely to be limited, given the dampening effect of ongoing Russian military attacks on aggregate demand.
