EURUSD Daily Forecast The EUR/USD pair started the week with a modest uptrend, but despite initial optimism, a lack of upward momentum prevented it from breaking through the key resistance level at 1.1415. This level represents the upper limit of the bullish channel that has defined the price action in recent weeks. The failure to break through this level, while not an overtly pessimistic factor, reflects a lack of confidence that a strong uptrend can be maintained in the current environment. A closer look at the technical indicators paints a mixed picture, highlighting the indecisiveness of this currency pair. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), previously in overbought territory, is now declining, indicating that buying sentiment has weakened recently. Moreover, the MACD has fallen below its red signal line, indicating weakening momentum and casting doubt on the possibility of further upside in the coming sessions. This development suggests that optimistic investors may become increasingly cautious and it may be difficult to move forward without a fundamental catalyst. However, it is not all bad. The Stochastic Oscillator gave a weak bullish signal and recorded a positive cross near the 20-level sell-off border. This could be interpreted as the first sign of a recovery effort, especially if supported by favorable news or increased risk appetite. Although there are no signs of a reversal yet, this suggests that the bulls have not completely lost control of the market. Fundamental changes in the coming days could have a significant impact on the EUR/USD pair. Important economic data will be released on both sides of the Atlantic. The latest US non-farm payrolls report is due to be released shortly. This is an important indicator of the labor market and will affect expectations for Federal Reserve policy. At the same time, the Eurozone is due to release its Consumer Price Index inflation data, which could affect the European Central Bank's monetary policy outlook. Depending on the outcome, this report could be the catalyst for a major change in the future. Meanwhile, the EUR/USD pair continues to stabilize above the 1.1290-1.1300 support zone. This area is considered a short-term bottom and is supported by the nearby 20-day SMA (Simple Moving Average). The SMA has entered this market and can provide additional technical support. If this first support level is broken, the pair may fall further towards the 1.1175-1.1200 area, which may act as a buffer against selling pressure. However, if this level cannot be sustained, it may plummet to the 1.0970-1.1020 range. If the downward trend strengthens further, especially by breaking below the 50-day simple moving average, the sentiment may shift to a more pronounced downward trend. In this case, the next important target is the 1.0765-1.0800 range, where the 200-day simple moving average intersects with the long-term uptrend line. This area is considered to be a key support structure that will determine whether the overall uptrend that began earlier this year will continue or start to stall. Looking at the uptrend, a breakout above the resistance level at 1.1415 would be a major uptrend. This move could pave the way for an uptrend towards 1.1513, which is a key resistance barrier and could act as a bullish breakpoint. To overcome this barrier, the previous support and resistance line around the 1.1600 level, which continues until June 2024, may be tested. If the buyers can break out of this level, they can target the resistance zone of 1.1670-1.1700, which, if broken, could pave the way to the next key target of 1.1835. Finally, the EUR/USD pair continues to remain stagnant, suggesting that market participants are taking a neutral position in the short term and waiting for a fresh catalyst. The failure to break above 1.1415, coupled with momentum indicators, suggests that there is still no clear direction. Nonetheless, underlying technical support remains resilient, and the market could swing in either direction depending on upcoming economic data and geopolitical developments. A decisive move above 1.1415 or a break below 1.1290 will likely be required to signal the next significant phase for the pair, offering traders a clearer picture of where sentiment and price action are headed next.
