I find myself in agreement with the core sentiment you’ve expressed, and I believe it warrants a detailed expansion of my own perspective. I am currently assessing the broader trajectory, and while I acknowledge the compelling COT data showing accumulated open interest at all-time highs, I maintain a cautiously optimistic view. I think it is crucial to recognize that such a record does not automatically preclude a breakout, as the underlying bullish momentum appears, for the moment, firmly intact. I would personally welcome an initial retracement, as I see it presenting a more favorable risk-reward profile for establishing a long position. I am specifically eyeing a pullback toward that significant COT balance level near 1.15, which I view as a potential springboard for a robust new wave of upward movement. I am constantly questioning whether the bearish cohort possesses the concerted force to materialize their decline scenario, only for the bulls to subsequently rally from that lower base. I ponder this dynamic interplay constantly, as it sits at the heart of my current strategic dilemma
Furthermore, I must stress that I see no logical reason to commit capital without a comprehensively clear technical and volumetric picture unfolding before me. I am waiting for that clarity, which I am convinced will only arrive alongside demonstrative, good-quality volumes in both the futures and options markets. I observed yesterday's bearish attempt to catalyze a downward impulse from the balance zone of 1.17495-1.17416, and I must admit it did not instill in me any confidence regarding the sustainability of a sell-off. I therefore consider it a strong possibility that we will experience continued, directionless volatility consolidated around these pivotal balance levels. I have also noted, with some wariness, that the options market activity has thinned considerably, signaling a potential lull or period of indecision among larger players. I intend to meticulously synthesize all available market data—from flow analysis to sentiment indicators—into a coherent whole. I will be searching for any subtle, interesting divergences or confirmations that the charts may reveal. Only after this thorough synthesis will I feel prepared to make my definitive tactical decision. I will then determine which side to align with: the strategically savvy "smart ones" operating on pure data, or the technically compelling "beautiful ones" riding the wave of momentum. I genuinely hope you also manage to navigate these murky waters successfully and enjoy a restful and productive weekend ahead.
