FX.co ★ #Bitcoin chart analysis

I observe that Bitcoin has once again started to form a downward trend on the H4 chart after reacting to the 94,803 resistance level, and I note that this movement fits well into the broader bearish structure I have been monitoring. I acknowledge that there was no sharp rejection or classic bearish engulfing pattern exactly at that resistance, but I emphasize that the price exiting the buy zone and moving decisively into the sell zone is already a strong bearish signal in my analysis. I see the breakdown of both Ichimoku Cloud boundaries to the downside as confirmation that sellers have regained control, and I consider the currently active bearish engulfing pattern as an additional argument in favor of further decline. I expect the price to move toward the 86,719 support level, and I plan for a corrective pullback from that area toward 89,461 before selling pressure resumes. I anticipate that after this rebound, Bitcoin could continue falling toward the psychological 86,000 level, which aligns with my broader bearish expectations. I consider the downward movement from the 94,000 area to be technically justified and largely anticipated, especially as I see early signs of a developing head and shoulders formation, which traditionally supports a continuation to the downside. I also analyze the CCI indicator on the H4 timeframe and notice that it is smoothly exiting the peak selling zone and turning upward, which I interpret as a short-term corrective reaction rather than a trend reversal. I view the rebound from the 90,304 support level as part of a flat correction, and I expect this consolidation to eventually break downward, leading to renewed bearish momentum. I continue to see Bitcoin trading within a bearish channel, and I rely on the downward-sloping moving averages as confirmation that the dominant trend remains bearish. I interpret the price being below key signal lines as clear evidence of sustained selling pressure and increased probability of further declines.

I currently expect Bitcoin to attempt a bullish correction toward the resistance area near 93,135, but I clearly see this move as corrective rather than impulsive in nature. I plan for a renewed downward rebound from that resistance zone, followed by a continuation of the decline with a potential long-term target below 55,905, which reflects a more aggressive bearish scenario. I define the invalidation of this bearish outlook very clearly, as I believe only a strong breakout and consolidation above 106,505 would cancel the decline scenario and open the path toward 115,045. I also treat a confirmed close below the 80,405 support level as a key signal that bearish momentum is accelerating and that the market is entering a more aggressive sell-off phase. I pay close attention to the weekly structure and note that the weekly range has not yet been closed, but I already see a high probability of a southward reversal candle forming. I focus on the 89,253 support level for the coming week and prepare for two main scenarios around this zone. I consider a bullish reversal candle from this support as a potential signal for a temporary recovery toward 95,074 or even 99,000, where I would then reassess market direction and look for new trading setups. I also remain open to a more extended bullish target near 107,400, but I stress that such a move would heavily depend on the news background and market sentiment at that time. I alternatively prepare for a bearish continuation scenario, where consolidation below 89,253 would open the way toward 84,505 or 80,522, and possibly even deeper levels such as 74,393 if panic selling emerges. I conclude that there is nothing particularly attractive for short-term trading next week, as I expect the price to drift toward nearby support levels before offering clearer opportunities. I finally emphasize that the broader structure suggests another strong downward wave, and I remain skeptical about a sustainable move above 100,000, instead favoring a deeper correction toward the 70,000 region before any meaningful long-term buying opportunities emerge.