I observe that the USD/CHF pair is currently demonstrating a confident recovery after a recent decline, and I interpret the break above key moving averages as a clear signal of renewed buying pressure and strengthening bullish sentiment. I note that the price has approached the important resistance zone near 0.8012, and I believe this level is highly significant because it may temporarily slow the upward movement or lead to consolidation, especially considering that the RSI indicator is already signaling overbought conditions. I consider this RSI behavior not as a reversal signal, but rather as a warning of a potential pause, sideways movement, or shallow corrective pullback that would still preserve the overall bullish structure. I pay close attention to the support level at 0.7958, because I believe holding above this area is critical for maintaining the bullish scenario in the short term. I see a clean breakout above 0.8012 as an opening of the path toward 0.8044 and potentially higher levels if momentum remains strong. I also take into account that the Swiss National Bank currently has limited direct influence on the franc, which leads me to focus primarily on US macroeconomic data and Federal Reserve policy as the main drivers of USD/CHF dynamics. I expect strong US economic releases to further support the dollar and push the pair higher, while weak data could trigger a corrective move without invalidating the broader upward bias. I interpret the current price action as a classic example of market manipulation, where I see a prolonged upward movement without meaningful pullbacks designed to move against the majority of market participants. I believe this upward push is intentional, aiming to test higher volume levels and force incorrectly positioned sellers to capitulate.
I analyze the context of this movement and conclude that I must understand the underlying reason for the price formation rather than reacting emotionally to the candles themselves. I believe the rise began when quotes were near the lower boundary of the volume level around 0.7895, where I think most participants were convinced the decline would continue and opened short positions. I observe that instead of falling, the price moved higher against the majority, and I see that many traders are still adding to short positions as the market rises, which in my view fuels further upside pressure. I consider the 0.8060 volume level as a critical zone where unprofitable sellers may begin to close losing positions and switch to long trades, thereby completing the manipulation cycle. I believe that once this transition occurs and volume confirms exhaustion, a bearish signal could eventually emerge from this accumulation zone, potentially leading to a sharp drop below previously formed lows. I also note that the order book shows a large cluster of profitable buyers below the current price, and I believe the so-called puppeteer is pushing quotes higher to increase this imbalance. I interpret the breakout of the daily channel resistance as a strong technical signal, and I see the outer contour beyond the trend line as a new sloping support for a bullish impulse. I expect next week to bring technical moves that support an external correction with the risk of transforming into a full bullish trend. I plan long positions during consolidation in zone “A” and view a breakout above 0.81278 with consolidation in zone “B” as confirmation of trend continuation. I focus on the H1 chart, where I see consistent higher highs and higher lows, and I believe the rebound from 0.7992 confirms bullish control. I expect a move toward 0.8025, followed by a pullback and potential continuation higher, and I remain firmly bullish with no intention of considering short scenarios.
