I observe that despite the apparent weakness of the sellers on XAU/USD and their inability to push the price toward meaningful lows, I still remain skeptical about the sustainability of the current bullish continuation because the market structure is showing signs of exhaustion rather than fresh accumulation. I acknowledge that the MA100 on the daily chart is trending upward with a confident 30-degree angle, and I recognize that such a slope usually reflects strong bullish sentiment during the week, yet I also consider that mature trends often look strongest right before they begin to lose momentum. I note that all three Bollinger Bands are positioned above the key moving average and are expanding upward at a similarly aggressive angle, and I interpret this as confirmation that the bullish trend is technically intact, but I also understand that this configuration often precedes periods of overextension rather than safe continuation entries. I see that there are currently no clear discrepancies or classical divergences on the price-to-band relationship itself, and I admit that this reinforces the idea that bulls remain active, although I question how much new buying power is actually entering at these elevated levels. I focus on the fact that the price has already managed to push a daily candle beyond the upper Bollinger Band, and I interpret this as a signal that the bullish objectives for this impulse leg have largely been fulfilled. I emphasize that such behavior typically reflects emotional or late-stage buying, which often leaves the market vulnerable to a corrective response once momentum fades. I pay close attention to the global sell signal from the Semafor indicator, and I consider its placement in a technically meaningful zone as a warning rather than something to be ignored, especially given the stretched volatility conditions. I believe that when strong trend indicators align with exhaustion-based signals, the risk-to-reward profile for continued buying deteriorates significantly. I also analyze the basement indicators, and I note that they are already showing a decline driven by bearish divergence, which to me suggests that internal momentum is weakening even while price remains elevated. I interpret this divergence as an early sign that buyers are losing control beneath the surface, despite the visually strong trend structure. I remind myself that markets often reverse not when indicators look bearish, but when they look excessively bullish and consensus becomes one-sided. I therefore suspect that the current upward movement may represent a return move or final push rather than the beginning of a new sustained growth phase. I identify the first estimated support at 4467, and I consider this level as a logical target for a corrective move where the market could test whether buyers truly have strength or whether the rally was merely overextended. I conclude that while the technical picture still favors bulls on the surface, I personally lean toward caution and expect either consolidation or a corrective decline before any meaningful continuation, because the balance of signals suggests exhaustion rather than fresh bullish potential.
I warmly acknowledge the new all-time high at 4634 and recognize that the market demonstrated impressive bullish strength yesterday, yet I immediately note that the failure to hold above this level introduces an important shift in short-term sentiment. I observe that after setting this fresh high, the price reversed direction rather decisively and moved south, which tells me that buyers were unable or unwilling to defend the breakout zone. I see additional significance in the fact that the price not only pulled back but also formed a new low relative to Tuesday, because this behavior often signals a change in intraday structure rather than a simple pause. I personally interpret this price action as a potential reversal signal, although I consciously restrain myself from declaring a full trend change and instead frame it as a corrective movement within a broader bullish context. I emphasize that the current price around 4603 places the market in a vulnerable zone where bullish confidence may start to erode if sellers maintain pressure. I note that sell targets have already been clearly formed on the hourly chart, and I treat this as confirmation that short-term market participants are actively positioning for continuation to the downside. I focus first on the 161.8 Fibonacci extension level at 4534, because I understand from experience that this target is statistically the most frequently achieved during corrective impulses. I believe that this level represents a realistic and technically justified objective where partial profit-taking by sellers and reactive buying by bulls may occur. I also consider that a clean and impulsive move toward 4534 would further validate the corrective scenario rather than an immediate trend reversal. I then analyze the second Fibonacci target at the 261.8 level near 4475, and I view this level as far more conditional, as it would require sustained bearish momentum and a clear failure of buyers to respond at the first target. I recognize that reaching this second level would imply deeper structural weakness and would significantly challenge the assumption that the current move is only a correction. I extend my analysis to the third and most ambitious target at the 423.6 Fibonacci level around 4376, and I openly admit that I find this scenario highly questionable under current conditions. I reason that such a deep decline would likely require strong fundamental drivers or a broad shift in market sentiment, neither of which is clearly visible at the moment. I therefore categorize this third target as a theoretical extreme rather than a practical expectation. I continuously remind myself that markets often respect the first major Fibonacci extension during corrections, especially after setting new all-time highs where profit-taking pressure naturally increases. I also consider the psychological aspect, and I note that traders who bought the breakout may now be trapped, which can fuel further selling toward the nearest logical support. I remain cautious, however, because I know that strong trends often disguise themselves as reversals before resuming growth. I conclude that while the recent price behavior strongly supports a southerly corrective phase with 4534 as the primary objective, I am not yet convinced that the market is ready to abandon its broader bullish structure, and I will continue to treat deeper targets as secondary and speculative until price action clearly confirms otherwise.
