I am analyzing the daily chart and I note that this week XAUUSD quotes have set another historical record by breaking above the upper boundary of the first impulse zone at 4603, which in my view is a level that buyers are unlikely to confidently secure in the near term. I believe that if this assumption proves correct and the gold price returns back below the 4603 level, I would expect the market to initiate a corrective decline toward the lower boundary of the same impulse zone located around 4466. I see this 4466 area as a technically significant level where buying interest could reappear, and I consider that from this zone another northward reversal may become possible if bullish sentiment starts to rebuild. I also acknowledge that if selling pressure intensifies, the price could extend its decline further toward the last northward starting line near 4244, which I currently view as the deepest realistic downside scenario. I am not considering price levels below 4244 at this stage, as I believe such a move would require a major shift in macroeconomic or geopolitical conditions. I also recognize an alternative bullish scenario in which, after a short pullback or even directly from current levels, the metal consolidates above 4603. I would interpret a stable consolidation above 4603 as a strong bullish confirmation, and in that case I would expect continued growth toward the next impulse zone around 4824. I must emphasize, however, that given the easing geopolitical tensions around Iran, I currently see no strong fundamental basis to support such an aggressive northward move. I identify critical long-term support for XAUUSD at the last angle of the ascending fan and near the 4075 level. I mention this support mainly for reference, because I consider a decline toward 4075 highly unlikely in the near future. I therefore remain focused on monitoring price behavior around 4603 and 4466, as I believe these levels will define the next meaningful directional move for gold.
I see no reason at all to stop communicating, and I think this kind of reflection is exactly what helps clarify the market logic and trader psychology at the same time. I hope the market rewarded disciplined traders by pushing above 4600, and I am now asking myself, just like you, what the next meaningful step could be. I notice the presence of a diagonal structure on the chart, but I also clearly see that there is still no clean, confident signal directly from that structure. I remember how I kept looking for sell signals from the 2500 area, and I understand how frustrating it was to not receive a single convincing confirmation until the price reached around 3500. I admit that at some point I would also have given up on searching for shorts in such a persistent bullish environment. I now observe that a recognizable pattern seems to be forming, and I believe it can be traded, but I also understand that patience is required until the market provides a proper signal. I specifically note that there was no rebound or rejection from 4500 or even from 4550, which is why I would not have justified entering short positions there. I currently have the impression that the market may indeed be generating another signal for upward continuation, but I am also asking myself what the realistic target of that move could be. I define the long-term sell signal very clearly as a confident breakout below 4272, because only such a move would structurally change the bullish picture. I also see, however, that gold is showing a strong unwillingness to fall, which tells me that sellers still lack conviction. I acknowledge the possibility that the existing pattern could simply be broken to the upside, invalidating many bearish expectations once again. I conclude that from 2500 onward, the market has consistently offered only growth signals, and ignoring them has been psychologically costly for many traders. I honestly recognize that fear prevented me from buying gold at higher levels, despite the technical evidence. I also recall that from 1800 onward I was actively buying, but I closed positions far too early. I therefore see this situation as a lesson in trusting structure over emotion and letting the market, not fear, define my actions.
