I see the EUR/USD pair moving in a clearly defined range on the daily timeframe, and I observe the price fluctuating between established resistance zones above and reliable support zones below. I believe the market is not currently trending aggressively, and I interpret the recent price action as indicative of fluctuations rather than directional strength. As I analyze the opening of the next trading session, I expect the pair to gradually return to its main support zone, and I do not anticipate it holding onto any significant upside move. I feel this expectation is rooted in the repetitive behavior I have witnessed at the range extremes, and I maintain that until a decisive breakout occurs, this mean-reverting play is the most logical path forward
When I examine the structure more closely, I highlight a particularly strong resistance zone near 1.1700–1.1770, an area I have seen repeatedly limit bullish attempts and attract substantial selling pressure. I also identify an intermediate resistance barrier near 1.1640, a level where I have noted the price has previously failed to hold daily closes, reinforcing its significance. On the downside, I consider the 1.1550–1.1570 region to be an important short-term support zone, especially as I see the price currently reacting in this very area. Looking further down, I pinpoint the major daily support near 1.1450, and I view this as a historically potent demand zone that I have watched slow and stall bearish moves on multiple occasions. In terms of momentum, I note that the RSI (14) remains below the 50 midline and is approaching the lower region, which tells me that bearish pressure is still undeniably present. I interpret this configuration as suggesting there is still room for downside development without immediately triggering an oversold, mean-reversion rebound. Simultaneously, I observe that the MACD histogram remains submerged below its signal line and lingers near the zero level. I see this as a clear sign of weak bullish momentum, and I take it as a confirmation that the recent upward moves were merely corrective retracements within the broader range, not fresh impulsive waves. I synthesize all these elements into a cohesive outlook, and I plan my approach around a test of lower support before any potential reversal, always respecting the boundaries the market has so clearly defined.
