FX.co ★ USD/JPY

Based on my careful analysis of the technical landscape, I firmly believe that buyers will mount a significant offensive at the week's open. I observe that the configuration on the 4-hour chart is primed for a reversal from below, which I interpret as a clear signal for upward momentum. I predict this initial push will specifically target the daily high of 158.855, as I see this as a logical first objective for the bulls to reclaim. I further anticipate that, fueled by this technical impetus, the rally will not stop there; I expect a subsequent thrust toward the more formidable weekly high of 159.400. I hold the view that, given the broader context of a strengthening dollar, it is highly improbable for bullish sentiment to simply dissipate without a fight. I therefore envision a scenario where this zone between 158.855 and 159.400 becomes a critical battleground for consolidation following the initial surge. I am watching for a decisive break above 159.400, which I would consider a powerful bullish confirmation. I assert that a daily candle closing firmly above 159.500 would, in my assessment, not only validate the bullish control but would also likely lead to a prolonged phase of further growth, or more accurately, a sustained sideways movement at elevated highs, which I think would trap many late sellers

However, I must also account for a secondary, and in some ways more immediately obvious, scenario that I have modeled. I propose that buyers might exhaust their energy after a final, almost obligatory, test of the 158.855 level. I foresee this move into the marginal zone acting as a perfect trap, where selling pressure begins to covertly build. I then expect sellers to decisively seize the initiative from that precise point, initiating a controlled decline. I project the initial target for this bearish counter-offensive to be the weekly support clustered around 157.730. I am particularly focused on what happens following a test of this level; I believe a decisive renewal and sustained trading below it would signal a deeper shift in sentiment. I would interpret a daily candlestick closing below 157.465 as a critical technical event, one that I think would unequivocally point speculators toward a sustained southern trajectory. I maintain that this second path is a compelling alternative, as it aligns with classic market patterns of false breakouts and exhaustion at key technical junctures. Ultimately, I am monitoring the price action around these defined levels with great scrutiny, as I know the market’s next major direction will be decided by which of these narratives captures the dominant institutional flow in the sessions ahead.