FX.co ★ GBP/USD

I am analyzing the GBP/USD pair as it reaches a critical juncture today, February 6, 2026. The market is currently feeling the heavy weight of a dovish Bank of England shift. I see the price hovering at 1.3521 as it tests the resolve of long-term buyers. The Pound has faced a sharp sell-off over the last 24 hours. I am watching this breakdown closely to see if the downward momentum will accelerate before the week ends. Upcoming Fundamental Economical News I am bracing for significant volatility as the market digests the fallout from yesterday’s Bank of England meeting. While the bank kept rates at 3.75%, the 5–4 vote split was a major shock. Four policymakers voted for an immediate cut, which tells me that the UK is on the verge of a pivot. This internal divide has significantly weakened the Pound as investors price in a much higher chance of a rate cut in March or April. On the US side, I am focused on the data gaps left by the recent government shutdown. Although some reports are delayed, the US Dollar Index is surging toward the 98.00 level. I am keeping a close watch on US consumer sentiment data today. Any evidence of American economic resilience will likely strengthen the Dollar further. The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair also continues to provide a hawkish backdrop that supports the greenback against the weakening Sterling. Possible Support - Resistance & Trading Strategy I have identified the key zones where the price is likely to find friction or acceleration. Resistance Levels: The immediate barrier for any recovery is 1.3580. This area was a solid support level that has now flipped into resistance. Above that, the 1.3650 zone remains a formidable hurdle. I do not expect a return to the 1.3842 highs anytime soon unless US data takes a massive turn for the worse. Support Levels: The most critical floor is currently 1.3500. This is a massive psychological level. If the price breaks below this, I expect a fast slide toward 1.3420, where the 200-day Moving Average provides a long-term safety net. The ultimate structural base for the year sits at 1.3350. Trading Strategy: I am employing a bearish trend-following strategy using the MACD and the 50-day Exponential Moving Average. The price has successfully closed below the 50-day EMA, confirming a shift in market regime. My MACD signal lines have crossed into negative territory with expanding histogram bars. I am looking to sell on any minor rallies that fail to break back above 1.3560, targeting the 1.3450 support cluster. Fibonacci Tools to Tune Market I have applied the Fibonacci retracement tool to the major rally that started in late 2025. This allows me to identify high-probability entry and exit zones for the current correction. Entry Point: The price is currently sitting exactly on the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3521. While this is a common bounce area, the momentum is so strong that I am looking for a deeper entry. I have set my primary "Buy" alert at the 61.8% Golden Ratio level near 1.3445 for a potential long-term reversal trade. Exit Point: For short-term sell positions, my primary take-profit target is 1.3475. If I enter a long position at the 61.8% level, my first exit target will be the 38.2% retracement at 1.3600. Stop Loss: I am placing my stop loss for any new long trades at 1.3385. This is safely below the 61.8% Fibonacci level and the 200-day moving average. Live Market Snapshots Trading Timeframe: I am focused on the 4-hour (H4) chart to time my entries and the Daily (D1) chart for the overall trend. Current Market Price: 1.3521 Recent Highs and Lows: I recorded a recent swing high of 1.3876 in late January and a fresh local low of 1.3515 today. Technical Indicator Values: The RSI is currently at 36, which is approaching the oversold zone but still shows room for more downside. The MACD is at -0.0052. Current Candle Pattern: I am observing a "Bearish Flag" formation on the H4 chart. This pattern often precedes a second leg down, suggesting that the current pause at 1.3521 might be temporary. Sentiment & Correlation I am noticing a breakdown in the usual correlation between the Pound and other risk assets. While some global indices are stabilizing, the Pound is falling due to the BoE’s specific dovish tilt. I am also tracking the negative correlation with the US Dollar Index (DXY). As the DXY moves closer to 98.00, the pressure on GBP/USD increases. Sentiment among retail traders is currently split, but institutional flow shows a clear preference for the Dollars higher relative yield. Proposed Entry/Exit I am proposing a tactical trade that aligns with the current bearish momentum. Entry: Sell at 1.3550 (on a retracement to the intraday resistance). Target: 1.3460 (near the 61.8% Fib level). Stop Loss: 1.3610 (above the 50-day EMA). The Context of the Move I believe the context of this move is a "regime change" for the British Pound. For much of last year, the Pound was the "carry trade" favorite because the BoE stayed hawkish while others softened. That narrative died yesterday with the 5–4 vote split. The "Context" here is a market that is now pricing in a much more aggressive UK easing cycle. Until the US Dollar hits a major resistance point, the path for Cable looks lower.