FX.co ★ #Ethereum chart analysis

I see Ethereum is fighting a heavy storm today on February 6, 2026. The price is struggling around the $1,892.00 level. It fell sharply from the $2,400 range earlier this week. I can feel the high anxiety among traders as we test major support zones. The market looks very different than it did just a few days ago. This analysis will help me understand if the bottom is near or if more pain is coming. I am primarily focusing on the Daily (D1) chart to track the overarching bearish structure that has dominated the first week of February. For precise entry and exit timing, I use the 4-hour (H4) timeframe. The Daily chart shows a clear series of lower highs, while the H4 chart is helping me spot the first signs of selling exhaustion. Current Market Price The current market price is $1,892.98. This follows a massive 22% drop over the last 24 hours. The price has slipped well below the psychological $2,000 barrier. Recent Highs and Lows I have identified these key price levels for current tracking: Recent High: $2,979.00 (The peak reached before the current February crash). Recent Low: $1,812.48 (The 2026 low touched just hours ago). Macro High: $4,946.00 (The August 2025 resistance zone). Technical Indicator Values Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is currently at 28.5. This is deep in the "Oversold" zone. When the RSI is this low, it usually suggests that the aggressive selling is reaching a climax. I am looking for a bounce, but a low RSI can stay low for a while during a crash. Moving Averages: The price is trading far below the 50-day EMA ($2,810) and the 200-day EMA ($3,150). The "Death Cross" where the 50-EMA crossed below the 200-EMA occurred in late January. This confirms we are in a confirmed bear market for the medium term. MACD (12, 26, 9): The MACD histogram is showing large red bars, but they have stopped expanding in the last four hours. This is the first sign of a "Bullish Divergence" forming on lower timeframes. Current Candle Pattern On the 4-hour chart, I see a "Long-Legged Doji" followed by a small green candle. This indicates that buyers are finally stepping in to defend the $1,800 range. On the Daily chart, the current candle has a very long lower wick. This suggests that the market is rejecting the lower prices near $1,812. Upcoming Fundamental Economical News I am tracking several major catalysts that are moving the price: Institutional Liquidity Crises: Reports of BitMine sitting on $6.6 billion in unrealized ETH losses have spooked the market. Traders fear an "Exit Liquidity" event if these firms are forced to sell. Vitalik Buterins L2 Shift: The Ethereum founder recently questioned the current Layer-2 scaling roadmap. This "About-Face" has caused confusion and selling in the DeFi sector as investors rethink Ethereum’s long-term utility. SEC Staking Delays: The SEC has once again pushed back decisions on staking features for Ethereum ETFs. This lack of "yield" in the ETFs is making them less attractive compared to Bitcoin ETFs. Support and Resistance Resistance Level 1: $2,100. This was a major support floor that has now flipped into a ceiling. Resistance Level 2: $2,320. This aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the recent crash. Support Level 1: $1,800. This is the most critical floor of the year. If this fails, the price could slide to $1,725 very quickly. Support Level 2: $1,550. This is the 2024 macro breakout zone. Fibonacci Tools for Entry and Exit I have applied the Fibonacci tool from the February high ($3,040) to the current low ($1,812). The 23.6% Level: $2,102 (My first major profit target for a bounce). The 38.2% Level: $2,281 (A very strong resistance zone where I expect sellers to reappear). The 50.0% Level: $2,426. I do not expect the price to reach this level without a major positive news event. Trading Strategy Using MA and MACD My current strategy is based on "Mean Reversion" due to the extreme oversold conditions. Entry Signal: I wait for the H4 MACD histogram to flip green. Long Entry: Buy at $1,910 if the H1 candle closes above the 20-period SMA. Exit/Take Profit: $2,095 (Targeting the 23.6% Fibonacci level and the previous support-turned-resistance). Stop Loss: $1,780 (Placed below the recent wick low). Sentiment and Correlation The sentiment is currently at "Extreme Fear." Most retail traders are panicking. I have noticed that the ETH/BTC ratio has dropped to 0.038, which is a multi-year low. This tells me that investors are fleeing Ethereum for the safety of Bitcoin. However, the correlation with US tech stocks remains high, so any recovery in the Nasdaq could lift ETH. The Context of the Move The "Context" of this crash is a massive deleveraging event. Over $5.4 billion in leveraged long positions were liquidated in the last 48 hours. We are currently in a "Price Discovery" phase to see where the real institutional demand sits. I believe the move from $3,000 to $1,800 has flushed out the "weak hands," but the road to recovery will be slow and choppy. Proposed Entry and Exit Summary Entry Point: $1,890 - $1,910 (Current bounce zone). Stop Loss: $1,775. Take Profit: $2,100. Risk-to-Reward Ratio: Approximately 1:1.6. Deep Structural Analysis and Expansion I am analyzing the "Glamsterdam" upgrade scheduled for later this year. While the short-term price action is ugly, the network fundamentals are actually improving. Daily transactions hit an all-time high of 2.5 million this week. This is a massive "Fundamental Divergence." The price is going down while the usage is going up. Historically, this gap is eventually closed by the price moving higher. I also see that staking participation has increased despite the price drop. Over 2.8 million ETH was staked just in the last week. This tells me that long-term holders are not selling; they are choosing to earn yield instead. I am watching the $1,800 support very closely. If the market can hold this level through the weekend, the likelihood of a "V-shaped recovery" back to $2,300 increases significantly.