I am analyzing Monday's trading session on the EURUSD currency pair, and I observed that it closed with a significant pinbar, which features a large shadow at the top. I see that the price is currently situated at 1.1791, and this positioning has captured my full attention. I have identified several sell targets on the hourly chart, and I must admit that the formation of these targets was quite unexpected for me. However, I am committed to maintaining objectivity in my analysis, so I will list them in detail for my own clarity and for the benefit of anyone following my perspective. I consider the first target to be the 161.8 Fibonacci level, which I have calculated at 1.1686. I then move on to the second target, which is the 261.8 Fibonacci level, and I place it precisely at 1.1681. I also recognize a third and more distant target, the 423.6 Fibonacci level, and I note that it corresponds to a price of 1.1440. I must emphasize that I am not blindly bearish, as I understand that a breakout above the resistance at 1.1836 will completely invalidate my current bearish scenario. If that happens, I will accept that my sell targets have become irrelevant, and I will then need to look for new buy targets to form
I currently have a lock position open on this asset, which means I am managing a complex trade with both a buy and a sell order active simultaneously. To begin with my outlook, I am actually expecting a short-term rise in price. I anticipate that this upward movement will renew the recent high, pushing beyond the 1.2080 level. I am projecting that this climb could extend to approximately 1.2150, and I will watch this development closely. I believe that after this expected rise, the market will then reverse and experience a good, sustained decline. I am carefully balancing these two opposing expectations within my trading strategy. I rely on my analysis of the pinbar and the Fibonacci levels to inform my decisions, but I also respect the critical resistance level that could change everything. I am prepared for both outcomes, and I will monitor the price action around 1.1836 with great interest. I know that my locked position gives me some flexibility, but I also understand that I must remain vigilant. I will continue to observe the hourly charts for any confirmation or rejection of my sell targets. I am committed to following my trading plan, and I will adapt my strategy based on how the price behaves in the upcoming sessions. I find this level of uncertainty challenging, yet I appreciate the opportunity it presents for objective analysis and disciplined trading.
