I see that during the current trading session silver has undergone another downward correction, where I observed bears actively pressing the price lower in line with a Head and Shoulders formation on the H1 timeframe, driving the metal down to 77.88, which I identify as the 23.6 Fibonacci retracement level and a logical technical reaction zone after the prior impulse. I note that this move effectively fulfilled the projected range of the Head and Shoulders pattern on the hourly chart, and I interpret this as a technically clean completion of the bearish scenario in the short term. I also observe that from the 77.78 area I can clearly identify a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern on the H1 timeframe, and I consider this formation as an early signal that buyers are attempting to regain control after the measured decline. I recognize, however, that I still do not see a confirmed breakout and consolidation above the neckline resistance at 86.25, and I understand that without an hourly close above this level I cannot confidently justify opening long positions in silver. I connect the recent decline in silver prices with the strengthening of the US dollar, and I anticipate that if the dollar weakens as suggested by the graphical structure of the US Dollar Index, I could see renewed bullish pressure in silver. I maintain that the broader trend in silver remains bullish, and I believe that once I see a confirmed breakout and consolidation above 86.25, I can expect continuation toward 91.25 as intermediate resistance and potentially toward the main upside target at 96.22. I conclude that I will remain patient, waiting for structural confirmation, because I prefer to align my trades with confirmed breakouts rather than anticipatory entries within an incomplete technical setup.
I continue to hold my short positions in Silver and I feel confident in my decision because I have been consistently selling since last week, including yesterday and today, and I see the market responding in line with my expectations. I follow a strict intermarket rule where I sell precious metals whenever I buy oil, and I reverse that logic when I shift exposure, and I find that this rotational approach helps me stay disciplined and emotionally detached from individual asset narratives. I observe that investors are currently favoring the US dollar amid heightened geopolitical tensions, and I interpret this capital flow into dollar-denominated assets as additional pressure on silver prices in the short to medium term. I admit that I was strongly influenced by a historical comparison to the 2011 structure, and I see notable similarities in the way price expanded and then transitioned into a broader corrective environment, which reinforces my bearish bias. I analyze the W1 timeframe and I characterize the broader structure not as a clean impulsive uptrend but as a wide flat formation within bullish territory, and I interpret this as a potential distribution phase rather than sustainable accumulation. I note that my intraday sell targets at 81.00 have already been achieved, and I consider that confirmation that sellers remain active at current levels. I assume that buyers’ protective stops may be clustered below 64.06, and I understand that such liquidity zones could act as magnets if downside momentum accelerates. I study the daily candlestick behavior and I perceive what looks like gradual buyer positioning followed by potential liquidity sweeps, which strengthens my expectation of further downside. I am now patiently waiting for 75.00 as my next downside objective, and I ultimately anticipate a deeper move toward 62.50 if bearish pressure continues to dominate.
