FX.co ★ XAG/USD, SILVER

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF SILVER PAIR. On the SILVER.m Daily (D1) chart, the broader market structure continues to favor the bears despite the latest attempt to stabilize above the long-term ascending trendline. Price is currently trading around 57.63, remaining well below the declining long-term moving average, which confirms that the dominant trend is still negative. Since the major rejection from the January peak near 117.00, silver has produced a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, illustrating sustained selling pressure and a clear shift from bullish momentum into a prolonged corrective phase. Although the rising green trendline has temporarily slowed the decline, recent candlesticks reveal weak buying commitment, with small-bodied candles and repeated failures to establish a strong daily close above nearby resistance. This behavior reflects market indecision rather than genuine bullish strength. The moving average is sloping downward and remains significantly above current price, acting as dynamic resistance that sellers may continue to defend during any recovery. Volume has also remained relatively moderate during the recent consolidation, suggesting institutional participation is still limited and that buyers have yet to regain meaningful control. Immediate support is located around 56.00-55.50, where the trendline intersects with previous reaction lows. A decisive daily close below this zone would invalidate the current support structure and could accelerate bearish momentum toward 53.00, followed by the psychological 50.00 level. On the upside, initial resistance is found near 60.00, followed by 63.20, while stronger resistance remains near the falling moving average around 67.00-69.00. Unless price can reclaim these resistance levels with strong bullish candles and increasing volume, rallies are likely to be viewed as corrective pullbacks within the prevailing downtrend. Momentum indicators, based on price action, continue to suggest sellers maintain the overall advantage despite short-term consolidation. The repeated inability to generate higher highs reinforces the bearish outlook, while every rebound has attracted renewed selling interest. As long as daily candles remain below the descending moving average, traders should treat upside movements cautiously because they currently lack structural confirmation. Overall, the chart continues to display a bearish bias, with the long-term trendline representing the final technical barrier preventing a deeper decline.

From a trading perspective, patience and confirmation remain essential because silver is positioned at a technically significant decision zone. Conservative traders may prefer waiting for a confirmed breakout before committing to new positions. A daily close below 55.50 would provide stronger confirmation of bearish continuation and could create a selling opportunity with a potential entry around 55.40-55.20, a stop-loss above 58.80, and profit objectives near 53.00, followed by 50.00 if downside momentum strengthens. Conversely, if buyers successfully defend the ascending trendline and produce consecutive bullish daily closes above 60.00, accompanied by expanding volume and stronger momentum, the market could attempt a corrective recovery toward 63.20, with extended upside potential into 67.00-69.00, where the declining moving average is expected to present significant resistance. For bullish traders, a reasonable strategy would involve waiting for a confirmed breakout above 60.00, considering entries around 60.20-60.50, placing a protective stop-loss below 57.00, and targeting 63.20 initially before extending objectives toward 67.00 if momentum improves. Risk management remains particularly important because price is trading near a major technical support area where volatility can increase sharply following a breakout in either direction. Traders should also monitor macroeconomic catalysts such as US inflation data, Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, Treasury yield movements, and US dollar strength, as these factors frequently influence precious metals and can determine whether silver breaks lower or stages a meaningful recovery. If the US dollar continues to strengthen and real yields remain elevated, bearish pressure on silver is likely to persist. However, weaker economic data, declining yields, or increased safe-haven demand could encourage buyers to challenge overhead resistance. Until a confirmed breakout occurs, the market is likely to remain range-bound between support and resistance, making disciplined trade execution and strict position sizing essential. The overall technical picture continues to favor sellers, but the current support zone deserves close attention because it will likely determine the next major directional move on the Daily timeframe.