GBP/USD Timeframe H1: Based on the GBP/USD chart on the H1 timeframe, the current price is hovering around 1.3586. The price movement structure indicates that the GBP/USD pair had previously experienced a fairly strong uptrend since mid-August, but this momentum began to weaken and then turned into bearish pressure in the short term. This change in character was clearly visible in the sharp decline on August 26, which took the price from the 1.3630–1.3640 area to around 1.3580. Following this decline, the price moved relatively flat around the 1.3582 support level. Thus, the current market condition can be categorized as a bearish correction phase within a previously bullish structure. Looking at the 100-day moving average (MA), the blue moving average line on the chart is still above the 200-day moving average (MA). The 100-day moving average appears to be around 1.3620–1.3625, while the 200-day moving average (MA) is around 1.3595–1.3600. The 100-day moving average (MA) remaining above the 200-day moving average (MA) indicates that the intermediate trend structure on the H1 chart has not yet fully shifted to bearish. This is important because the ongoing price decline cannot be immediately considered a major trend reversal. As long as the 100-day moving average (MA) remains above the 200-day moving average (MA) and the 100-day moving average (MA) slope hasn't significantly changed to a downward slope, there's still a possibility that the current decline represents a correction to the previous uptrend. However, from a short-term momentum perspective, the situation is more bearish. GBP/USD has broken below the 100-day moving average (MA) and is also moving below the 200-day moving average (MA). When the price is below these two moving averages, selling pressure typically becomes more dominant, as both moving averages can act as dynamic resistance. Under current conditions, the 200-day moving average (MA) area around 1.3595–1.3600 is a crucial zone. If the price rebounds from 1.3582 but fails to break through the 200-day moving average (MA), the rebound could potentially only be a pullback before weakening again. Conversely, if the H1 candlestick closes above the 200-day moving average (MA) and then successfully crosses the 100-day moving average (MA), the short-term bearish structure will begin to lose strength. Interestingly, the distance between the 100-day moving average (MA) and the 200-day moving average (MA) remains relatively positive, as the 100-day moving average (MA) is above the 200-day moving average (MA). This indicates that a strong bearish crossover has not yet occurred. If the 100-day moving average (MA) crosses the 200-day moving average (MA) from top to bottom, this would be further confirmation that the H1 trend is beginning to undergo a more serious change. Before such a crossover occurs, a more appropriate approach is to distinguish between short-term bearish momentum and the intermediate trend, which is not yet fully bearish.
In terms of horizontal support and resistance, the most important level on the chart is 1.3582. This horizontal line is currently being tested by the price. This area was previously part of the price structure and now serves as immediate support. The price has fallen sharply towards this area and then formed a small consolidation. The price reaction to 1.3582 will significantly determine the direction of the next movement. If this support holds and a strong bullish candle appears, the chances of a technical rebound increase. Conversely, if the H1 candle manages to break through and close convincingly below 1.3582, bearish pressure could potentially continue towards the next support level around 1.3546. The 1.3546 level is the next significant horizontal support level. This area has previously been a point of price reaction and is relevant to the movement structure on previous dates. If 1.3582 is broken, 1.3546 becomes a logical technical target to gauge the continuation of bearish momentum. A decisive break of 1.3546 would then open up room towards 1.3512. The 1.3512 support level is also crucial because it served as the basis for consolidation before GBP/USD experienced a strong rally. Therefore, the further the price moves below 1.3546, the greater the likelihood that the previous bullish structure is undergoing a deeper correction. Below 1.3512 lies the 1.3473 support level, which can be viewed as major support on the chart structure shown. If the price reaches this area, bearish pressure will be quite significant, as it would mean that most of the previous gains have been corrected. The reaction at 1.3473 should be monitored carefully, as major support often serves as a location for bargain buying or technical rebounds. Meanwhile, in terms of resistance, the first level to watch is around 1.3600–1.3605, which is close to the 200-day moving average (MA). This zone serves as dynamic resistance and a key area for determining whether the current decline still has momentum. If the price only rises towards this area and is rejected, sellers are still in control. However, if the price manages to break through 1.3605 and hold above it, the next focus could be on 1.3639. The 1.3639 level is a crucial horizontal resistance level because it is close to the price consolidation area before the sharp decline. Furthermore, this area is also close to the 100-day moving average (MA). The combination of horizontal resistance and the 100-day moving average (MA) makes 1.3639 a fairly strong confluence resistance level. If GBP/USD manages to break through this level with a solid H1 candle and then retests without falling below it, the chances of a bullish recovery will increase significantly. The next resistance level is 1.3674. This level is the upper resistance level on the chart and was previously the area where the price experienced rejection. A breakout of 1.3674 would signal that buyers have successfully regained control more firmly. In this scenario, the short-term bearish structure can be considered failed, and the market has the potential to re-establish an uptrend. Overall, the chart shows a divergence between trend structure and momentum. The 100-day moving average (MA) remains above the 200-day moving average (MA), so the intermediate trend is not yet fully bearish. However, the price being below both moving averages indicates that short-term selling pressure is currently dominant. Confirmation of the next direction depends heavily on the price response around 1.3582 and its ability to reclaim the 1.3600–1.3605 area.
