FX.co ★ NZD/USD

NZDUSD W1 Technical Analysis Using Smart Money Concepts and ICT 1 Market Structure The NZDUSD weekly chart is showing a clear bearish market structure, with sellers maintaining control over the overall price movement. The market has formed several lower highs, indicating that buying pressure is weakening at higher price levels. Previous bullish attempts toward 0.59904 have failed to establish a sustainable upward trend. Price is now trading around 0.55412, showing continued weakness in the weekly structure. The formation of bearish candles near the latest support area suggests that sellers are still active. Unless the market breaks the previous lower high, the overall weekly structure will remain bearish. 2 Overall Trend Direction The overall trend direction of NZDUSD remains bearish because the market has consistently failed to create higher highs. The descending trendline confirms the presence of selling pressure across multiple weekly candles. Previous recovery movements have repeatedly faced resistance near important supply levels. The latest weekly closing price of 0.55412 indicates that bearish momentum is still influencing market direction. Buyers have not yet demonstrated enough strength to reverse the existing trend. Therefore, the bearish trend remains dominant until a confirmed bullish market structure shift develops. 3 Important Support Levels The 0.55819 level represents an important historical support area where price previously experienced buying reactions. However, the latest weekly candle has closed below this level at 0.55412, indicating a potential support breakdown. The next important downside reference is the recent weekly low around 0.55261. If sellers maintain control below the broken support, the market may continue searching for lower price levels. A successful recovery above 0.55819 would indicate that buyers are attempting to regain control. Weekly closing confirmation is important before identifying a genuine support recovery. 4 Important Resistance Levels The 0.56498 level represents the first important resistance area above the current closing price. A stronger resistance level is located around 0.57604, where previous price movements experienced selling pressure. The major resistance area is positioned near 0.59904, which has repeatedly acted as a barrier against bullish continuation. These levels may attract selling activity if price attempts a recovery. Buyers need to break and establish weekly acceptance above 0.57604 to improve the bullish outlook. Until then, these resistance levels remain important obstacles for any upward movement. 5 Descending Trendline Analysis The descending trendline highlights the repeated formation of lower highs throughout the visible weekly trading history. This trendline demonstrates that sellers are consistently entering the market when price approaches higher resistance areas. Previous attempts to move above the trendline have failed to generate sustained bullish continuation. The latest price movement remains below the broader descending structure. A confirmed weekly breakout followed by a successful retest could indicate a possible change in market direction. Until such confirmation appears, the descending trendline supports the bearish outlook. 6 Sell Side Liquidity Analysis Sell side liquidity is generally located below previous swing lows, where stop loss orders from buyers may accumulate. The recent weekly low around 0.55261 represents an important liquidity reference for the current market structure. A move below this level could trigger additional selling activity and collect liquidity resting beneath previous lows. However, a liquidity sweep followed by a strong bullish rejection could create an opportunity for a temporary recovery. A sustained weekly close below the liquidity area would instead support bearish continuation. Traders should monitor the reaction after any liquidity sweep rather than assuming every breakdown is a reversal. 7 Buy Side Liquidity Analysis Buy side liquidity is located above previous swing highs, where stop losses from sellers and breakout orders may accumulate. The 0.56498 and 0.57604 areas provide important upside liquidity references within the visible chart structure. A bullish recovery could attract price toward these levels before the market determines its next direction. The higher resistance region around 0.59904 represents another significant liquidity area. However, reaching buy side liquidity does not automatically mean that the market will continue higher. Price rejection or acceptance after a liquidity sweep will help identify the next potential direction. 8 Order Block Analysis The weekly chart shows potential bearish order block areas near previous swing highs and repeated selling reactions. The region around 0.57604 to 0.59904 can be monitored for possible bearish institutional interest. Price has previously struggled to maintain bullish movement within these higher regions. On the downside, the recent consolidation around 0.55819 and 0.55412 may contain a potential bullish reaction area. However, an order block requires confirmation through the original impulsive move and surrounding candle structure. These zones should therefore be treated as potential areas rather than confirmed institutional positions.

9 Fair Value Gap Analysis Fair Value Gaps represent price inefficiencies created when strong directional movements leave an imbalance between consecutive candles. The historical price movements on this chart provide potential areas where imbalances may be monitored. The region around 0.56498 to 0.57604 is particularly important for observing a possible retracement into previous price inefficiency. If price returns to this region and experiences bearish rejection, sellers may attempt another downward movement. A strong bullish displacement through the imbalance could weaken the bearish outlook. Exact FVG boundaries require individual candle examination because the screenshot does not provide enough detail to confirm every imbalance precisely. 10 FVG With Order Block Analysis The combination of an FVG and an order block can create a stronger potential reaction area when both structures overlap. The region surrounding 0.55819 to 0.56498 deserves attention because it contains previous price reactions and possible imbalance structures. If price retraces into this area and shows bearish rejection, it could provide confirmation of continued selling pressure. Conversely, strong bullish displacement through the overlapping region could indicate improving buying strength. Traders should wait for lower timeframe confirmation before considering any entry. The overlap itself is not sufficient evidence of institutional buying or selling. 11 Supply Zone Analysis The 0.57604 to 0.59904 region represents an important potential supply area based on previous bearish reactions. Several historical upward movements have struggled to maintain acceptance above these prices. This behavior suggests that selling interest has previously appeared within the higher trading range. If price returns to this region, traders should observe bearish engulfing candles, rejection wicks, and market structure shifts. A confirmed rejection could support another downward movement toward lower support levels. A sustained weekly breakout above 0.59904 would weaken the existing bearish supply interpretation. 12 Demand Zone and No Demand Analysis The current price region around 0.55261 to 0.55819 is important for identifying potential demand and buyer participation. The latest weekly candle has closed at 0.55412, indicating that price is trading below the 0.55819 reference level. RSI is also showing relatively weak momentum, which suggests that buyers have not yet established strong control. No Demand conditions cannot be confirmed from price alone because candle spread and volume behavior must also be examined. A strong bullish rejection accompanied by increasing buying volume would improve the possibility of a recovery. Continued weak buying activity could allow sellers to extend the downward movement. 13 Volume and RSI Analysis The volume indicator currently displays 430829, while the RSI 14 reading stands at 36.67. RSI below 50 indicates that bearish momentum is stronger than bullish momentum in the current weekly structure. However, the indicator has not reached the traditional oversold threshold of 30, meaning further downside movement remains possible. Recent volume activity should be monitored to determine whether selling pressure is increasing or weakening. A bullish RSI recovery above 50 would provide additional evidence of improving momentum. Until that happens, the volume and RSI indicators generally support a cautious bearish interpretation. 14 Final Market Outlook The NZDUSD weekly chart currently maintains a bearish outlook because price has closed at 0.55412 below the important 0.55819 support reference. The immediate downside area is the recent low around 0.55261, where sell side liquidity may be targeted. A confirmed breakdown below this low could strengthen the bearish continuation scenario. On the upside, recovery above 0.55819 followed by 0.56498 would provide the first signs of improving buying strength. A stronger bullish reversal would require a sustained recovery toward 0.57604 and a change in weekly market structure. Overall, sellers remain in control, but confirmation around the recent low and support levels will be essential for determining the next major movement.