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Economic Calendar
Monday, 8 December
Industry is a basic category of business activity. Firms in the same industry are on the same side of the market, produce goods which are close substitutes and compete for the same customers. For statistical purposes, industries are categorized following a uniform classification code such as Standard Industrial Classification (SIC). Changes in the volume of the physical output of the nation's factories, mines and utilities are measured by the index of industrial production. The figure is calculated as a weighted aggregate of goods and reported in headlines as a percent change from previous months. It is often adjusted by season or weather conditions and thus volatile. However, it is used as a leading indicator and helps in forecasting GDP changes. Rising industrial production figures signify increasing economic growth and can positively influence the sentiment towards local currency. Total vehicles is comprised of cars, light commercials, trucks, buses and tractors.
Auto Sales measures the change in the number of new cars and trucks sold domestically. It is an important indicator of consumer spending is closely correlated to consumer confidence. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the BRL , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the BRL.
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The figures displayed in the calendar represent the average yield on the Bons du Trésor à taux fixe or BTF auctioned.
French BTF bills have maturities of up to 1 year. Governments issue treasuries to borrow money to cover the gap between the amount they receive in taxes and the amount they spend to refinance existing debt and/or to raise capital.
The yield on the BTF represents the return an investor will receive by holding the treasury for its entire duration. All bidders receive the same rate at the highest accepted bid.
Yield fluctuations should be monitored closely as an indicator of the government debt situation. Investors compare the average rate at auction to the rate at previous auctions of the same security.
The figures displayed in the calendar represent the average yield on the Bons du Trésor à taux fixe or BTF auctioned.
French BTF bills have maturities of up to 1 year. Governments issue treasuries to borrow money to cover the gap between the amount they receive in taxes and the amount they spend to refinance existing debt and/or to raise capital.
The yield on the BTF represents the return an investor will receive by holding the treasury for its entire duration. All bidders receive the same rate at the highest accepted bid.
Yield fluctuations should be monitored closely as an indicator of the government debt situation. Investors compare the average rate at auction to the rate at previous auctions of the same security.
The figures displayed in the calendar represent the average yield on the Bons du Trésor à taux fixe or BTF auctioned.
French BTF bills have maturities of up to 1 year. Governments issue treasuries to borrow money to cover the gap between the amount they receive in taxes and the amount they spend to refinance existing debt and/or to raise capital.
The yield on the BTF represents the return an investor will receive by holding the treasury for its entire duration. All bidders receive the same rate at the highest accepted bid.
Yield fluctuations should be monitored closely as an indicator of the government debt situation. Investors compare the average rate at auction to the rate at previous auctions of the same security.
New orders measure the value of orders received in a given period of time. They are legally binding contracts between a consumer and a producer for delivering goods and services. New orders indicate future industrial output and production requirements.The Manufacturers Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3) survey provides broad-based, monthly statistical data on economic conditions in the domestic manufacturing sector. There are 89 separately tabulated industry categories in the M3 survey. These categories are groupings of the 473 manufacturing industries as defined in the 1997 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) Manual. The monthly M3 estimates are based on information obtained from most manufacturing companies with $500 million or more in annual shipments. In order to strengthen the sample coverage in individual industry categories, the survey includes selected smaller companies. Value of Shipments - The value of shipments data in the M3 survey represents net selling values, f.o.b. plant, after discounts and allowances and excluding freight charges and excise taxes.
The Durables Excluding Transport event is an important economic indicator that measures the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods, excluding transportation items. Durable goods are products that have a lifespan of three years or more, such as machinery, equipment, vehicles, and electronics.
This event provides insights into manufacturing activity and consumer demand for long-lasting goods. Since transportation items, such as aircraft and automobiles, can cause significant volatility in the data due to their high ticket prices and fluctuating demand, excluding these items gives a clearer picture of the overall health of the durable goods manufacturing sector.
Higher values for Durables Excluding Transport indicate increased demand for durable goods and signal potential growth in manufacturing and economic activity. Conversely, lower values may suggest decreased demand and a slowdown in the economy. Investors and policymakers closely monitor this indicator as it influences investment strategies and guides monetary policy decisions.
Factory Orders measures the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers. The report also includes a revision of the Durable Goods Orders data released about a week earlier as well as data new data on non-durable goods orders.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Factory Orders measures the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers, but excluding all orders related to the transportation industry. The report also includes a revision of the Durable Goods Orders data released about a week earlier as well as data new data on non-durable goods orders. A higher than expected number should be taken as positive to the USD, while a lower than expected number as negative.
In any given month, the rate of inflation in a price index like the Consumer Price Index or Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) can be thought of as a weighted average, or mean, of the rates of change in the prices of all the goods and services that make up the index. Calculating the trimmed-mean PCE inflation rate for a given month involves looking at the price changes for each of the individual components of personal consumption expenditures. The individual price changes are sorted in ascending order from fell the most to rose the most, and a certain fraction of the most extreme observations at both ends of the spectrum are like a skaters best and worst marks thrown out, or trimmed. The inflation rate is then calculated as a weighted average of the remaining components. For the series presented here, 19.4 percent of the weight from the lower tail and 25.4 percent of the weight in the upper tail are trimmed. Those proportions have been chosen, based on historical data, to give the best fit between the trimmed-mean inflation rate and proxies for the true core PCE inflation rate. The resulting inflation measure has been shown to outperform the more conventional excluding food and energy measure as a gauge of core inflation.
The eight labor-market indicators listed below aggregated into the Employment Trends Index. Percentage of respondents who say they find ""Jobs Hard to Get"" (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey). Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor). Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now (National Federation of Independent Business). Number of employees hired by the temporary-help industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics). Part-time Workers for Economic Reasons (BLS).Job Openings (BLS). Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board). Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis). A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
The NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations is an economic event that measures the anticipated inflation rate in the United States over the next 12 months. This data is derived from the Survey of Consumer Expectations conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The survey provides information on consumer attitudes towards inflation, which can be an important factor in shaping economic policies and financial market trends.
A higher than expected inflation rate can be concerning for investors, as it may lead to the Federal Reserve increasing interest rates to combat rising prices, which can have an impact on consumer spending and investments. Conversely, a lower than expected inflation rate may indicate a sluggish economy, potentially leading to policy makers adopting a more accommodative stance to stimulate economic growth. The NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations therefore serves as a valuable indicator of consumer sentiment and potential future policy actions by the Federal Reserve.
The figures displayed in the calendar represent the rate on the Treasury Bill auctioned.
U.S. Treasury Bills have maturities of a few days to one year. Governments issue treasuries to borrow money to cover the gap between the amount they receive in taxes and the amount they spend to refinance existing debt and/or to raise capital. The rate on a Treasury Bill represents the return an investor will receive by holding the bill for its entire duration. All bidders receive the same rate at the highest accepted bid.
Yield fluctuations should be monitored closely as an indicator of the government debt situation. Investors compare the average rate at auction to the rate at previous auctions of the same security.
The figures displayed in the calendar represent the rate on the Treasury Bill auctioned.
U.S. Treasury Bills have maturities of a few days to one year. Governments issue treasuries to borrow money to cover the gap between the amount they receive in taxes and the amount they spend to refinance existing debt and/or to raise capital. The rate on a Treasury Bill represents the return an investor will receive by holding the bill for its entire duration. All bidders receive the same rate at the highest accepted bid.
Yield fluctuations should be monitored closely as an indicator of the government debt situation. Investors compare the average rate at auction to the rate at previous auctions of the same security.
The figures displayed in the calendar represent the yield on the Treasury Note auctioned.
U.S. Treasury Notes have maturities of two to ten years. Governments issue treasuries to borrow money to cover the gap between the amount they receive in taxes and the amount they spend to refinance existing debt and/or to raise capital. The rate on a Treasury Note represents the return an investor will receive by holding the note for its entire duration. All bidders receive the same rate at the highest accepted bid.
Yield fluctuations should be monitored closely as an indicator of the government debt situation. Investors compare the average rate at auction to the rate at previous auctions of the same security.
Budget balance according to the IMF methodology, expressed as % of GDP. Cash basis. Economic Expert Group (EEG) is an independent Russian company that specializes in consulting services on economic and financial policy issues to government officials on federal and regional level. Economic Expert Group was established in 1994 to render analytical support to the Department of Macroeconomic Policy of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation. Since that time EEG has been working in close everyday contact with the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade. EEG provides Russian Government with analytical support at the negotiations with international financial organizations, Paris and London Clubs of creditors, international rating agencies, prepares monthly reviews of Russian economy, participates in monthly monitoring of Russian economy, carried out by the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade. On the Government orders EEG develops short-, medium-, and long-term macroeconomic projections, participates in the process of co-ordination of macroeconomic forecasts between official institutions (Ministry of the Economic Development and Trade, Ministry of Finance, Bank of Russia) and between the Government of Russia and the IMF in the process of discussing parameters of economic programs. EEG elaborated presentations of Russian economy for Offering Circulars of all issues of Eurobonds of the Russian Federation.
Nonfarm Productivity measures the annualized change in labor efficiency when producing goods and services, excluding the farming industry. Productivity and labor-related inflation are directly linked-a drop in a worker's productivity is equivalent to a rise in their wage.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Unit Labor Costs measure the annualized change in the price businesses pay for labor, excluding the farming industry. It is a leading indicator of consumer inflation.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
A financial situation that occurs when an entity has more money going out than coming in. The term "budget deficit" is most commonly used to refer to government spending rather than business or individual spending. When it refers to federal government spending, a budget deficit is also known as the "national debt." The opposite of a budget deficit is a budget surplus, and when inflows are equal to outflows, the budget is said to be balanced.
The M3 Money Supply is a key economic indicator that measures the total amount of money circulating in an economy, including cash, checking deposits, and savings deposits within the United Arab Emirates. A broader measure of money supply, M3 also includes less liquid financial instruments like large time deposits, institutional money market funds, and other larger, less-liquid assets.
As a monthly event on the economic calendar, the M3 Money Supply's growth rate is closely monitored by investors and policymakers to assess the health of the economy, the direction of interest rates, and potential inflationary pressures. An increase in the M3 Money Supply may signal an expansionary monetary policy, which can lead to increased investment, job creation, and economic growth, while a decrease may indicate a contractionary policy, potentially leading to economic stagnation or recession.
The funds a buyer has to borrow (usually from a bank or other financial institution) to purchase a property, generally secured by a registered mortgage to the bank over the property being purchased. A home loan requires you to pledge your home as the lender's security for repayment of your loan. The lender agrees to hold the title or deed to your property until you have paid back your loan plus interest.
M3 Money Supply measures the total quantity of domestic currency in circulation and deposited in banks. An increasing supply of money leads to additional spending, which in turn leads to inflation.
Monetary aggregates, known also as "money supply", is the quantity of currency available within the economy to purchase goods and services. Depending on the degree of liquidity chosen to define an asset as money, various monetary aggregates are distinguished: M0, M1, M2, M3, M4, etc. Not all of them are used by every country. Note that methodology of calculating money supply varies between countries. M2 is a monetary aggregate that includes all physical currency circulating in the economy (banknotes and coins), operational deposits in central bank, money in current accounts, saving accounts, money market deposits and small certificates of deposit. Excess money supply growth potentially can cause inflation and generate fears that the government may tighten money growth by allowing the interest rates to rise which in turn, lowers future prices. M2 = Currency in circulation + demand deposits (private sector) + time and savings deposits (private sector).
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the JPY, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the JPY.
Tuesday, 9 December
The British Retail Consortium (BRC) Retail Sales Monitor measures the change in the value of same-store sales in BRC-member retail outlets in the U.K.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.
The National Australia Bank (NAB) Business Confidence Index rates the current level of business conditions in Australia. Changes in business sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity such as spending, hiring, and investment. The index is based on data collected from a survey of around 350 companies. A level above zero indicates improving conditions; below indicates worsening conditions.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD.
Business confidence is a measure of respondents expectations of business conditions in their industry for the upcoming period. Business conditions is a simple average of trading, profitability and employment indices, reported by respondents for their company. A higher than expected number should be taken as positive to the AUD, while a lower than expected number as negative.
The Building Approvals report is a significant economic indicator in Australia, offering insights into the development and growth of the housing sector. This data provides estimations of future construction activity, and by extension, the wellbeing of the construction industry. The number of buildings approved for construction helps analysts to evaluate job prospects in the sector and to predict if any fluctuations in the housing market are imminent.
Building approvals also indicate the confidence level of builders and can reflect expectations about the economy’s overall health. A high number of approvals might suggest high future investment in construction and therefore overall economic growth. Conversely, a decrease might signal a decline in the construction sector and potentially wider economic troubles. For these reasons, the Building Approvals report is closely watched by economists, investors, and policy makers alike.
Building Approvals (also known as Building Permits) measures the change in the number of new building approvals issued by the government. Building permits are key indicator of demand in the housing market.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD.
Construction industry provides information on construction output and activity. Such information gives an insight into the supply on the housing and construction market. Rising number of new construction starts or value of construction completed reflects higher consumer and business optimism. Expanding construction indicates growth in the housing market and predicts an increase in the overall economy. However, an excessive supply of new buildings may result in a drop in housing prices. The construction industry is one of the first to go into a recession when the economy declines but also to recover as conditions improve. Statistics of building work approved are compiled from: permits issued by local government authorities; contracts let or day labour work authorised by Commonwealth, State, semi-government and local government authorities; major building activity in areas not subject to normal administrative approval e.g. building on remote mine sites.
Foreign capital actually utilized refers to the amount which has been actually used according to the agreements and contracts, including cash, materials and invisible capital such as labour service and technology which both parties agree to take as an investment. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the PHP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the PHP.
Industrial Production measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the PHP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the PHP.
The consumer confidence index is based on interviews with consumers about their perceptions of the country's current and future economic situation and their tendencies to purchase. The performance of the economy of a country is reflected in macro-economic variables, such as the gross national product, external debt, interest rates, foreign exchange rates, imports, exports, stock market prices, inflation rates, real wages, unemployment rate, and so on. The state of the economy is also reflected in the micro-behavior of the consumers. The attitudes and behaviors of individual consumers affect the performance of the economy. For example, if they believe that the economy is heading in a certain direction, then they would make their savings or spending plans according.
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) board members come to a consensus on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the AUD.
The figures displayed in the calendar represent the yield on the JGB auctioned.
JGB's have maturities of up to 50 years. Governments issue treasuries to borrow money to cover the gap between the amount they receive in taxes and the amount they spend to refinance existing debt and/or to raise capital. The rate on a JGB represents the return an investor will receive by holding the note for its entire duration. All bidders receive the same rate at the highest accepted bid.
Yield fluctuations should be monitored closely as an indicator of the government debt situation. Investors compare the average rate at auction to the rate at previous auctions of the same security.
Consumer Confidence measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. It is a leading indicator as it can predict consumer spending, which plays a major role in overall economic activity. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the THB , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the THB.
The Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) monthly rate statement contains the outcome of bank's interest rate decision and discusses the economic conditions that influenced the decision. It can also give investors clues to the outcome of future decisions.
A more dovish than expected statement could be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD, while a more hawkish than expected statement could be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD.
Consumer Spending measures the change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods expenditures by consumers. Consumer spending accounts for the majority of economic activity. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
Consumer Price index is the most frequently used indicator of and reflect changes in the cost of acquiring a fixed basket of goods and services by the average consumer. The weights are usually derived from household expenditure surveys. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.
Machine Tool Orders measures the change in the total value of new orders placed with machine tool manufacturers. Two versions of this report are released, preliminary and final. The preliminary report had the biggest impact.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the JPY, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the JPY.
Exports of goods and services consist of transactions in goods and services (sales, barter, gifts or grants) from residents to non-residents. Exports free onboard (f.o.b.) and Imports cost insurance freight (c.i.f.) are, in general, customs statistics reported under the general trade statistics according to the recommendations of the UN International Trade Statistics. For some countries Imports are reported as f.o.b. instead of c.i.f. which is generally accepted. When reporting Imports as f.o.b. you will have the effect of reducing the value of Imports by the amount of the cost of insurance and freight.
Exports free on board (f.o.b.) and Imports cost insurance freight (c.i.f.) are, in general, customs statistics reported under the general trade statistics according to the recommendations of the UN International Trade Statistics. For some countries Imports are reported as f.o.b. instead of c.i.f. which is generally accepted. When reporting Imports as f.o.b. you will have the effect ofreducing the value of Imports by the amount of the cost of insurance and freight.
The Trade Balance measures the difference in worth between exported and imported goods over the month. A positive number indicates that more goods were exported than imported.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
The Current Account is an important economic indicator that measures the difference in value between Denmark's exports and imports of goods, services, investment income, and current transfers over a specific period. It is a significant component of the country's balance of payments, which is a comprehensive record of all economic transactions between residents of Denmark and the rest of the world.
A positive current account balance indicates that Denmark's total exports, or inflows, surpass its total imports, or outflows. This suggests that the country is a net saver and potentially attractive to foreign investors. On the other hand, a negative current account balance implies that Denmark is a net borrower from the global economy, which could signify potential economic challenges.
The current account figure not only offers insight into the trade balance but also reflects the country's competitiveness and attractiveness to foreign investors. As a result, it is closely monitored by economists, investors, and policymakers alike for its potential impact on the Danish Krone exchange rate, financial markets, and overall economic health.
Trade balance, called also net export, is the difference between the value of country's exports and imports, over a period of time.A positive balance (trade surplus) means that exports exceed imports, a negative one means the opposite. Positive trade balance illustrates high competitiveness of country's economy. This strengthens investors interest in the local currency, appreciating its exchange rate. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the DKK , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the DKK.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) is designed to monitor changes in prices of items at the first important commercial transactions. Producer Price Index (PPI) measures a change in the prices of goods and services, over a span of time, either as they leave their place of production or as they enter the production process. PPI measures a change in the prices received by domestic producers for their outputs or the change in the prices paid by domestic producers for their intermediate inputs. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the NOK , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the NOK.
M3 Money Supply measures the change in the total quantity of domestic currency in circulation and deposited in banks. An increasing supply of money leads to additional spending, which in turn leads to inflation.
Producer Price Index (PPI) measures a change in the prices of goods and services, over a span of time, either as they leave their place of production or as they enter the production process. PPI measures a change in the prices received by domestic producers for their outputs or the change in the prices paid by domestic producers for their intermediate inputs. The Producer Price Index (PPI) is designed to monitor changes in prices of items at the first important commercial transactions. The PPI shows the same general pattern of inflation as does Consumer price index, but is more volatile. This is because it is weighted more heavily towards goods that are traded in highly competitive markets and somewhat less sensitive to changes in the cost of labour. In principle, the PPI should include service industries, but in practice it is limited to the domestic agricultural and industrial sector.
Producer Price Index (PPI) measures a change in the prices of goods and services, over a span of time, either as they leave their place of production or as they enter the production process. PPI measures a change in the prices received by domestic producers for their outputs or the change in the prices paid by domestic producers for their intermediate inputs. The Producer Price Index (PPI) is designed to monitor changes in prices of items at the first important commercial transactions. The PPI shows the same general pattern of inflation as does Consumer price index, but is more volatile. This is because it is weighted more heavily towards goods that are traded in highly competitive markets and somewhat less sensitive to changes in the cost of labour. In principle, the PPI should include service industries, but in practice it is limited to the domestic agricultural and industrial sector.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.
