The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow model estimate for U.S. economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 has eased to 3.7%, down from a prior reading of 4.2%. The latest projection, updated on 10 February 2026, points to a modest cooling in quarterly growth expectations while still indicating a solid expansion in the U.S. economy.
The decline from 4.2% to 3.7% suggests that incoming data over the quarter have been slightly weaker than initially anticipated, trimming the model’s outlook for real GDP. While the adjustment reflects softer momentum, a 3.7% reading remains consistent with above-trend growth by historical standards, indicating that economic activity is still robust even as it appears to be normalizing from earlier, stronger estimates.
With both the previous and current estimates referring to the fourth quarter of 2025, the updated GDPNow figure underscores how real-time economic indicators can shift as more comprehensive data become available. Market participants and policymakers are likely to view the revision as a sign of gradual cooling rather than a sharp slowdown, as they assess the trajectory of the U.S. economy heading into 2026.
